The outlook for nuclear power is cooling a decade after the Fukushima meltdowns

Even a local anti-nuclear leader, Katsushi Hayashi, said he spends more time fighting an unrelated mountain railway these days, confident that regulators and public opinion wouldn’t let the plant open anytime soon. ‘Fukushima has given us all the evidence we need. It’s dangerous, ”said Mr. Hayashi.

The triple meltdowns at Japanese nuclear reactors in Fukushima following the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami marked a turning point in an industry that once dreamed of supplying the world with almost unlimited power.

Ten years after Fukushima, only nine reactors in Japan are allowed to operate, compared to 54 a decade ago, and five of them are currently offline due to legal and other issues. All of Fukushima Prefecture’s reactors have been permanently closed or set to do so. Chubu Electric Power Co.

, owner of the Hamaoka factory, declined to make a director available for comment. It has formally filed to reopen two reactors at the plant, telling regulators that new measures, such as the wall, which was largely completed in 2015, will ensure that they can be used safely.

Days after the 2011 meltdowns, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced an end to nuclear power in her country, and the last reactor will retire next year. The US has tightened regulations in response to Fukushima and there are no reactors under construction that started planning after 2011. From Anglesey, Wales, to Uljin County, South Korea, long-schedule projects have stalled due to safety concerns and rising costs.

However, it is too early to say that the Fukushima meltdowns killed nuclear power everywhere. Instead, they divided the world between wealthy developed countries that mostly avoid nuclear power and a group of developing countries, led by China, where the industry maintains hope for growth.

The number of operating nuclear reactors worldwide was 408 on July 1, 2020, up from 437 just after the Fukushima meltdowns, as new openings lag behind closures in Japan, Germany and elsewhere, according to the World Nuclear Industry Status Report, and operational capacity has been in the past little changed for decades.

Nuclear energy produces about a tenth of the world’s electricity, down from a peak of 17.5% a quarter of a century ago.

The global move towards reducing carbon emissions, symbolized by the Biden government’s decision to rejoin the Paris climate accord, is in some places a tailwind for nuclear power. The World Nuclear Association, an industry group that includes energy companies and nuclear power plant builders, has approximately 50 reactors under construction worldwide, including 16 in China. Some countries, such as Canada, are looking at a new generation of smaller reactors.

“I see a completely different picture in the past two or three years. We have begun to see many countries around the world really getting back to new nuclear power, ”said George Borovas, head of nuclear practice at law firm Hunton Andrews Kurth, citing interest in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, among others. East.

Before Fukushima, nuclear energy competed mainly with fossil fuels. Today, the battle is more about renewable resources, especially sun and wind.

Mycle Schneider, a nuclear energy consultant who is often critical of the industry, said it makes no sense to spend 10 or 15 years trying to build new nuclear power plants, given the rapidly declining cost of renewable energy and the batteries to store them.

“Much of the nuclear fleet around the world today cannot compete with new renewable energy sources,” said Mr Schneider. “The industry was in trouble before March 11” – the Fukushima collapses – “and March 11 has worsened the situation dramatically.”

He pointed to an auction by the Portuguese government in August last year, in which a successful bidder agreed to provide solar power for just over 1 cent per kilowatt hour, the amount of electricity required to run 10 100-watt light bulbs for an hour. to make it work. According to a calculator from the International Energy Agency, that is between 2.8 and 10 cents per kilowatt hour for nuclear energy.

Renewables aren’t necessarily cheaper when the intermittent power they produce is taken into account, nuclear defenders say. They also say that the loss of nuclear science expertise could affect national security for Western countries and Japan, and they see value – both for consumers and local economies – in an energy source that can last up to 80 years.

“The best green jobs are in nuclear power because they are the head of the household and they will guide you through your entire career,” said Kristin Zaitz, an engineer who co-founded Mothers for Nuclear, a group formed by two women to work for the future. industry.

Nuclear energy often loses at the expense of renewable energy sources due to strict regulations, which increases construction and operating costs. “It is already the safest way to generate reliable electricity. We can do a little more to keep them working instead of burdening them with more regulation, ”said Ms Zaitz.

That’s where Fukushima looms big, because memories of the radiation leaks there make the public, especially in Japan, resistant to arguments for lighter regulation. A 2019 survey by a pro-nuclear industry group found that 60% of Japanese respondents wanted to reduce or eliminate nuclear power.

Even Chubu Electric, the owner of the unused nuclear power plant, is not eager to openly advocate for a factory restart. In February, it released a brochure and internet videos promoting the impenetrability of the wall and the watertight reactor buildings. The brochure did not mention the company’s request to restart reactors. “There are several ways to generate electric power, and none of them are perfect,” the brochure says.

Write to Peter Landers at [email protected]