The number of deaths and cases of coronavirus per day in the US has declined significantly in recent weeks, but is still at an alarmingly high level, and the effort to eliminate COVID-19 is becoming an increasingly urgent race between the vaccine and the mutant virus.
The government’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci said the improvement in numbers across the country appears to be reflecting a “natural peak and then flattening” after a holiday peak, rather than the arrival of the vaccine in mid-December.
The mortality rate averages just under 3,100 per day, compared to more than 3,350 less than two weeks ago. The number of new cases averages 170,000 per day after a peak of nearly 250,000 on January 11. The number of COVID-19 patients admitted has fallen to approximately 110,000, from a record high of 132,000 on Jan. 7.
States that were hot spots in recent weeks, such as California and Arizona, have shown similar improvements over the same period.
On Monday, California lifted regional home win orders in favor of county-by-county restrictions and ended a 10 p.m. curfew. The shift will allow restaurants and churches to resume outdoor activities and reopen hair and nail salons in many places, although local officials could enforce stricter regulations.
Elsewhere, Minnesota school districts have begun to bring back elementary school students for personal learning. The Chicago school system, the country’s third largest district, had hoped to bring teachers back on Monday in preparation for the students ‘return next month, but the teachers’ union has refused.
“I don’t think the dynamics of what we’re seeing now will be significantly affected by the flattening – it will soon – but still by the vaccine. I just think it’s the natural course of the flattening, ”Fauci told NBC’s” Today. “
Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics at the University of Washington, said the predicted peak during the holidays was reduced by people traveling less than expected, and an increase in mask wearing in response to spikes in infections has since contributed to the decrease the number. But he cautioned there is a risk in celebrating progress early and relaxing social distance and wearing a mask.
Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said too few people have been vaccinated so far to have a significant impact on virus trends. She said she cannot predict how long it will take for the effects of the vaccines to be reflected in the numbers.
Rivers said she is concerned that the more contagious variants of the virus could lead to a deadly resurgence later this year.
“I think we were well underway – or at least better – spring and summer, and I’m afraid the variants will give us a curveball,” she said.
Across the country, about 18 million people, or less than 6% of the U.S. population, have received at least one dose of vaccine, including about 3 million who received the second injection. According to the CDC’s census, only a little more than half of the 41 million doses distributed to states by the federal government have been injected into the guns.
The virus has killed more than 419,000 Americans and infected more than 25 million, with a much-cited University of Washington model predicting the death toll will rise to about 569,000 on May 1.
And health experts have warned that the more contagious and potentially deadly variant sweeping through Britain is likely to become the dominant source of infection in the US in March. It has been reported in more than 20 states to date. Another mutant version is circulating in South Africa.
The more the virus spreads, the more possibilities it has to mutate. The fear is that it will eventually render the vaccines ineffective.
To guard against the new variants, President Joe Biden added South Africa on Monday to the list of more than two dozen countries whose residents are subject to coronavirus-related limits upon entry into the US.
Most non-US citizens who have been to Brazil, Ireland, Great Britain and other European countries will be denied entry to the US under the rules re-imposed by Biden after President Donald Trump moved to relax them.
Fauci said scientists are already preparing to modify COVID-19 vaccines to combat the mutated versions.
He said there is “a very slight, modest decrease” in the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against those variants, but “there is enough cushion with the vaccines we have that we still consider them effective” against both.
Moderna, the maker of one of two vaccines in use in the US, announced on Monday that it will begin testing a possible booster dose against the South African variant. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said the move was not “an abundance of caution” after preliminary lab tests suggested the shot triggered a weaker immune response to that variant.
The introduction of vaccines in the US has been marked by disorder and confusion, with states in recent days complaining of shortages and inadequate supplies that have forced them to cancel massive vaccination events and tens of thousands of appointments.
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said shortages are preventing the city from opening more large-scale vaccination sites.
“Here you have New York City ready to be vaccinated at the rate of half a million New Yorkers a week, but we don’t have the vaccine with it,” said de Blasio. “Many other places in the country are willing to do so much more.”
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Associated Press writers in the US contributed to this report.