China could see births drop below 10 million a year over the next five years if the government does not swiftly abolish its policy of limiting families to two children, an expert quoted in domestic media.
China’s overall population could also decline in a few years, Dong Yuzheng, director of the Guangdong Academy of Population Development, told Yicai, a Chinese financial news outlet.
The number of babies born in China fell by 580,000 to 14.65 million in 2019, and the birth rate of 10.48 per thousand was the lowest since 1949, when current data collection methods began, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
It has not yet released a figure for last year, although it typically releases such data in late February.
The country’s declining birth rate and rapidly aging society are expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.
Although China abolished its decades-long one-child policy in 2016, the rising costs of healthcare, education and housing have discouraged couples from having larger families. Economic uncertainties resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic have further depressed decisions to have children.
Separate data from the Ministry of Public Security shows that the number of births fell 15% last year to 10.035 million births, compared to 11.79 million in 2019.
The ministry may not count some children in rural areas, said Liu Kaiming, a labor expert in the southern city of Shenzhen, adding that he expects the number of newborns to be between 10 million and 14 million by 2020.
“(The number of births) could drop below 10 million next year,” said Liu.
China must also release the results of a once every ten year census. It previously said the results would be released in early April.
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