Growing intrigue over a trio of controversial presidential picks also underscore the power of individual senators such as Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Republican Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, when the partisan balance is so evenly distributed.
While Biden has seen blue-chip national security selections like Antony Blinken as Secretary of State and Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon, the focus on nominees whose portfolios touch on some of the most sensitive domestic political issues has turned the confirmation process to a contentious crescendo.
Another bruising hearing looms on Tuesday, for Home Secretary Deb Haaland, whose opposition to fossil fuels is causing GOP members to label her as extreme, in a showdown that could prove uncomfortable for moderate Democrats as well.
It’s not at all uncommon for new presidents to get in trouble with some nominees – or even for several potential cabinet members to fall. Blocking a choice is an easy way for senators to increase their power and signal to a new White House that they cannot be taken for granted. And the policy conflicts that cloud the hopes for confirmation from candidates like Haaland and Tanden are quite predictable, as they reflect the gaps between the parties.
But when a president has a reasonable ruling majority in the Senate, confirmations become easier. For example, if the Democrats had a handful of seats to spare, a senator like Manchin, who must constantly judge the winds in his ultra-conservative state of West Virginia, would get a pass.
But when nominations hinge on a party line vote and tiebreaker cast by Vice President Kamala Harris, Democratic leaders can’t provide any political cover – at least without some apostasy from the GOP ranks.
For now, the problem concerns individual cabinet nominees – whose defeat would sting Biden and damage the body of his reigning machine. But when it comes to sweeping and electorally radioactive issues such as climate change and immigration, his entire presidency is at stake in the coming months.
While the situation is fraught now, it cannot be ruled out that illness, disability or even death among older senators could erase his ruling majority forever.
A nomination on the verge
Teeth’s struggle is characteristic of nominees who have problems arising from their own political vulnerabilities, but who also fall victim to broader political forces that go beyond their individual destinies.
Still, Tanden, the president of the liberal think tank Center for American Progress, is in the somewhat unique position to watch her support fight right and left – a scenario that led some observers to be surprised when she was nominated.
Republican senators claim they are offended over some of her now-deleted tweets that trashed the GOP and individual senators she now has to vote for her. Of course, it’s a bit rich for Republicans to complain about someone’s tweets after four years of helping a president whose vitriol on social media has left Teeth in the dust. And then there’s the question of whether Tanden, a prominent female political figure born of Indian immigrant parents, is the victim of dual standards bias.
Yet hypocrisy is the fat that often turns the wheels in the Senate. And Tanden also receives lukewarm support from her own side. She was forced to make amends with Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent Vermont conferring with the Democrats, who is now chair of the Budgets Committee and would be her main liaison. Sanders supporters accused Tanden of being one of the Democratic elites they believe piled the party’s nomination race against him and in favor of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. During her confirmation hearing, Tanden had to apologize for what Sanders complained about her “attacks on progressives.
Given her always-dubious outlook, there wasn’t much of a reason for a senator like Manchin to support her. The West Virginian has backed the president’s nominees who have so far come for full votes. And he voted to condemn former President Donald Trump in his Senate impeachment process – an unpleasant choice given his home state overwhelmingly supports the ex-president.
So in order to protect his brand as a relatively independent voice and to avoid being labeled as a rubber stamp to Biden, Manchin probably had to take a stand somewhere. He explained that he couldn’t support Tanden because she represented the kind of divisive politics that Biden wants to purge from Washington.
“I don’t know her, probably a very, very good person, but actually a little toxic at the moment,” Manchin told reporters on Capitol Hill on Monday.
The West Virginia senator is also at a turning point in the battle to pass Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion Covid release bill from $ 1.9 trillion, which all Republicans are likely to oppose. He said on Monday he would try to change the legislation to set a federal hourly minimum wage at $ 11 over two years, instead of the current Democratic proposal for an increase to $ 15 over five years.
Once Manchin Tanden broke loose, and after a string of Republicans – including Sens. Mitt Romney of Utah, Susan Collins of Maine, and Rob Portman of Ohio – followed suit, her prospects for confirmation became dire indeed, despite the White House on it. it said it was Monday at the harvest.
“They will have to pull her,” a senior Democratic senator told CNN’s Manu Raju. Tanden’s meager hopes at the end of Monday were likely based on Murkowski, who has yet to say how she will vote.
The Alaska Republican is an independent voice – and she voted to condemn Trump in his second impeachment trial. But it’s hard to see how she would be incentivized to save an already deeply contested Democratic Cabinet candidate, especially with her own reelection race looming next year.
Proxy battle over climate change
The Haaland nomination differs from the Tanden case in that the New Mexico house member is very popular with most Democrats. Her nomination is historic as she would be the first Native American Cabinet member. She would also head the Home Affairs Department, an agency with a long track record of discriminating against her community.
Democrats and White House officials told CNN on Monday that they expect a tense few hours when Haaland appears before the Energy and Natural Resources Committee on Tuesday.
And guess who could be the Senate’s main voice on the panel and in the full Senate on Haaland’s prospects? Manchin, who chairs the committee and has not yet committed to support her nomination.
“We are very open to hear her, and hopefully she will get a good hearing,” Manchin, a longtime proponent of the fossil fuel industry in his home state, said Monday.
Haaland is at risk of becoming the focal point of Republican attacks on Biden’s renewed commitment to the United States to combat global warming – prompting him to rejoin the Paris climate accord after taking office.
In the past, Haaland has opposed the issuance of new oil and gas drilling on federal land and has expressed support for a ban on fracking, a method of extracting natural gas. She has also supported the Green New Deal, the ambitious climate plan of New York Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, but not the Biden administration.
The Green New Deal has been the target of Republican attacks claiming that restrictions on fossil fuels would destroy the US economy. It’s likely that Tuesday’s hearing will turn into a preview of the bitter partisan struggle likely to unfold when Biden sends a climate bill to Capitol Hill.
A hearing – finally
Not all of Biden’s nominees ran into problems on Monday.
Ironically, the reputation of moderation and steady temper, which Obama thought Garland would pave his way through a Republican-led senate to the Supreme Court, helped him during his hearing on Monday.
Arch-Trump supporter Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said on Monday that he would “most likely” support the nomination.