Vice President Pence is in the top tier of 2024 GOP contenders as the Trump era draws to a close.
The Republican Party’s firm expectation is that Pence will run in 2024 unless Trump flees again.
A Pence candidacy would have clear benefits. Pence has faithfully served Trump for the past four years, even though his personal attitude is many miles from that of the president.
Theoretically, that would allow Pence to hold onto the Trump base while having greater appeal. Pence’s boosters believe he could do better with the white, college-educated voters in the suburbs who broke away from Trump in the November election, with electorally decisive effects.
But there are also plenty of GOP doubters when it comes to Pence’s chances of triumph.
The skeptics question every pillar of the pro-Pence argument.
They question his chance of getting Trump voters to his side in a Republican primary, especially when other candidates compete for that same swath of voters.
Pence’s chances of holding “MAGA Country” against more colorful characters like Sen. Ted Cruz
Rafael (Ted) Edward Cruz George Clooney calls Trump ‘a charismatic carnival cracker’ Barr leaves conflicting legacy at DOJ Sen.-elect Tuberville suggests he will back his efforts to challenge the Electoral College MORE (R-Texas) or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis Upset Florida health scientist asks state to return items seized in Florida’s DeSantis raid to prioritize seniors for next doses of vaccine Republican Club’s Queens Indoor Holiday Party Goes Viral for Conga Line MORE (R), are mediocre at best, they say.
Conversely, while Pence’s deep roots in the evangelical movement are an advantage in a Republican primary, his socially conservative streak of Christianity could limit its appeal to moderate voters.
The question is whether university-educated suburbs will rally against a man with a very conservative view of LGBT issues and who refuses to dine alone with a woman other than his wife.
More generally, there is the question of whether Pence really has the charisma and zest to make a successful presidential bid of his own.
He won six terms as a congressman in Indiana and served one term as the state governor. But his performance in that one statewide election, in 2012, wasn’t spectacular. He won his race by 3 points on the same day as GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney
Willard (Mitt) Mitt Romney Bipartisan, Bicameral Group Urges Trump to Sign COVID-19 Aid Package Trump’s pardon exposes a new gap in the US legal system. carried Indiana by nearly 9 points.
“The field is getting stuck and he has not really impressed anyone. He hasn’t really distinguished himself, ”said a GOP strategist who asked for anonymity to openly discuss Pence’s odds.
This strategist questioned Pence’s ability to recreate Trump’s support coalition, adding, “ He’s not a populist. He was put on the card for being a Christian conservative – that’s his job. But Ted Cruz got pretty close to winning last time around, and he shouldn’t be discounted. So Pence has to prove that he outsmarts Ted in his own game, which is not easy. “
The ambitions of Pence’s White House have been muted because of the complexity of the present moment.
Trump falsely insists that he won this year’s election.
Pence, in turn, has tried to support his boss, without going too deep into the details of what needs to be done.
At a conference of young conservative group Turning Point USA on Tuesday, Pence insisted that the “election contest continues” and that the Trump team would “keep fighting until every legal vote is counted. We keep fighting until every illegal vote is thrown out.”
Despite such public statements of support, Axios reported on Tuesday that Trump had become dissatisfied with several people in his inner circle – including Pence, whom the president reportedly felt “ wasn’t fighting hard enough for him. ”
All of this makes it impossible for Pence to explicitly position itself for 2024.
Many Republicans say it is important not to underestimate Pence’s chances.
‘It all depends on whether Donald Trump
Donald Trump Powell Says White House Assistants Won’t Let Her Help Trump Judge Throws Out GOP Lawsuit to Close Georgia Ballot Boxes After Business Hours Two-Chamber Group Urges Trump to Sign COVID-19 Aid Package MORE runs, but clearly [Pence] has the backing of social conservatives and fiscal conservatives – and it’s a real bonus to be Donald Trump’s vice president for four years, ”said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “He is a very strong candidate.”
Matt Mackowiak, a county GOP chairman in Texas, said he believed Pence “would become a major factor in 2024. He has a national profile, and he will be able to raise money. He may be able to keep much of the Trump base while reaching wider. “
However, there are other complications for Pence. He was the administration’s lead actor in the coronavirus task force. The White House response to the pandemic has been widely criticized, and while most of the blame has been blamed on Trump, Pence’s involvement could be a liability.
The GOP strategist who wished to remain anonymous also pointed out that loyalty to Trump so far will likely only get a candidate before 2024, as other figures who serve or have served in the government are widely expected to be active as well.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Mike Pompeo Pompeo’s wife tested positive for COVID-19: Pompeo report: US establishes diplomatic post in disputed Western Sahara Trump administration continues bomb sale to Saudis MORE and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley
Nimrata (Nikki) HaleyPat Robertson says Trump lives in ‘alternate reality’ and Biden will be President Lara Trump leading Republicans in 2022 North Carolina Senate poll The Memo: Trump casts long shadow over 2024 MORE are two of the most frequently mentioned names.
“I think Pence is going to run, but the race will have Haley and Pompeo,” said the quarterback.
“It would be like the Bush presidency is coming to an end and Condoleezza Rice, Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld are all running.”
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.