The wave of optimism that followed the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccines is waning – and that could put President Biden in trouble.
The number of deaths from the virus in the US in January was 80,000, making it the country’s deadliest month. And new species are worrying scientists, including a mutation native to the UK that is more contagious and potentially deadly than those previously seen.
On Wednesday, the new head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rochelle WalenskyRochelle Walensky Overnight Health Care: Biden Advisor Delivers More Pessimistic Prediction About Vaccine Rollout | CDC Says Coronavirus Could Kill Up To 514K By Feb.20 Vaccine Research Funds Have Been Abused For Decades, Watchdog Says US CDC Projects Could See Up To 514K Coronavirus Deaths By Feb.20 Problems Interrupt First COVID-19 Zoom Briefing Under Biden MORE, said total US deaths from the virus will reach about 500,000 on Feb. 20 based on the current trajectory. More than 425,000 people have died so far.
There have also been problems with the roll-out of vaccinations, with state-level officials complaining that they are not getting clarity on how many shots will be available at any given time.
While the new government has only been in power for a week and cannot reasonably be blamed for many of the current problems, the problems resonate in the economy and pose a significant political risk to Biden.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader S&P 500 each fell more than 2 percent on Wednesday, the latest having its worst day since October, when the Federal Reserve left interest rates close to zero.
Retail sales have been below expectations for the past two months. The latest monthly employment report found that the country suffered net job losses for the first time in eight months in December.
Any further deterioration could weaken Biden’s political capital at an abrupt speed.
Fair or not, he will be held accountable for an ongoing economic slump, just as President Obama’s polls plummeted early in his first term as a financial crisis that began under the previous administration bleeding jobs.
“I think its approval rating and popularity, critically and primarily, will depend on the rollout of the vaccine. If that doesn’t go well, he’ll be blamed whether it’s his fault or not, ”said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“If the pandemic goes off track, so is the economy, and he will be blamed for that too,” Zandi added.
At the moment, there is growing consensus that a rapid economic recovery seems increasingly unlikely.
“The pace of recovery in economic activity and employment has been moderate in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic,” the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday. .
Biden is making great efforts to mitigate the economic effects of COVID-19 with his proposed $ 1.9 trillion bailout package. The proposal, which calls for instant payments of up to $ 1,400 for millions of Americans and the minimum wage to be raised to $ 15 an hour, faces uncertain outlook in Congress.
Biden has also argued that the pandemic situation is worse than he feared, preparing the nation for many more months of grueling battle.
Speaking at the White House on Tuesday, the president equated the fight against COVID-19 as “a war effort” and noted that it was “no secret we discovered recently … the vaccine program is in worse shape than we expected or expected. “
Biden has appointed a coronavirus response coordinator and is resuming regular White House briefings of medical experts, including Anthony Fauci
Anthony Fauci Overnight in Healthcare: Biden Advisor Delivers More Pessimistic Predictions About Vaccine Rollout | CDC Says Coronavirus Could Kill Up to 514K by Feb.20 Vaccine Research Funds Have Been Abused for Decades, Watchdog Says Fauci Confident Vaccine Companies Are Ready for ‘Mutant’ Coronavirus Strains Fauci Defends Birx: ‘She Had to Live in the White House’ MORE, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The president promised on Tuesday that states will have “a reliable three-week forecast of the supplies they will receive” in terms of vaccinations.
There have been minor mistakes.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki
Jen Psaki Overnight Healthcare: Biden Advisor Delivers More Pessimistic Prediction About Vaccine Rollout | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514K by Feb. 20 Vaccine research funds have been abused for decades, says watchdog McCaul has urged senators to block the vote on the Secretary of Commerce over Huawei’s concerns. told reporters Tuesday that Biden had not set a concrete goal when he suggested that 1.5 million people a day – instead of the aforementioned number of 1 million – would soon receive vaccinations.
“The president didn’t really say, ‘The new goal is …’ The president said, ‘I hope we can do more,’” Psaki said.
Biden claims that by early fall, 300 million Americans could be vaccinated. In a way, that’s a sign of optimism. But it also underscores how long it should take for anything close to normal life or normal economic activity to resume.
Earlier this week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom
Gavin NewsomFBI Says California Extremist May Have Targeted Newsom The Hill’s Morning Report – Biden Calls For Legislative Patience, Urgent Action Amid Crisis Portland Mayor Pepper Sprays Man After Restaurant Encounter MORE (D) surprised many observers by announcing a relaxation of restrictions, despite the fact that coronavirus cases in his state only recently reached elevated levels.
“The bigger threat is that Californians will see this as a signal to drop their guard, even if the virus continues to rage,” an editorial in the Los Angeles Times warned. “The state cannot afford to continue the cycle of one step forward and two steps back that has kept us firmly in the grip of the pandemic.”
Public health experts such as Kavita Patel, a physician and non-resident at the Brookings Institution, fear real dangers lie ahead.
‘I know the restrictions are difficult. People are tired, ”she said. “But the new species, combined with a weary population, are very concerning – a recipe for disaster.”
Public mood about the virus remains bleak, despite the existence of vaccines.
In an Economist-YouGov poll published Wednesday, only 17 percent of Americans believed that “the worst part of the pandemic is over.” Almost twice as many, 31 percent, believed that “the pandemic will get worse.” Thirty-two percent said we are “currently in the worst part” of the fight against the virus.
It is still possible that the worst-case scenarios, in terms of public health and economic impact, can be avoided.
The vaccination process could improve, the new virus mutations could have minimal effects and economically the pent-up demand could spur new growth as the threat to health declines.
At the moment, however, all that seems far from certain.
“The economy is struggling and the path of the pandemic has become more uncertain,” Zandi said.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.