The massive exodus from New York City during the COVID-19 crisis has cost $ 34 billion in lost revenue, according to a new study released Tuesday.
About 3.57 million people fled New York City between January 1 and December 7 this year – and they were replaced by about 3.5 million people with lower median incomes, Unacast’s findings said.
That means the Big Apple lost a net amount of 70,000 people during the pandemic.
“The exodus isn’t as big as what people are talking about,” said Thomas Walle, CEO and co-founder of Unacast, a location analysis company. “Perhaps the bigger impact is how the population changes and how demographics change.”
To arrive at its findings, Unacast analyzed anonymized cell phone location data to look at the impact COVID has had on three neighborhoods: Williamsburg, Astoria and Tribeca.
Tribeca, with a population of 20,000, took the biggest hit of the three – with a net loss of 3,500 residents – which equates to a net loss of $ 1 billion.
The more than 8,000 residents who emerged from the affluent hood in downtown Manhattan earned an average income of about $ 140,000, Walle said. The average person who took up the area earned an average of $ 82,000.
“Downstream there are clear implications,” Unacast warned in its report, noting the drop in income. “That means [residents] can afford less in terms of mortgages, rent, dining, shopping and other consumer spending. As a result, stores etc. that are more accustomed to catering to higher clientele are likely to lose market share
more affordable brands.
“Where Chris van Chanel and Ruth once ruled, H&M and an Outback may find a new one
generation of customers. “
In Williamsburg, home to about 80,000 residents, about 19,000 people left on September 7, equating to a loss of $ 1.3 billion in income – “one of the hardest-hit individual NYC neighborhoods we’ve surveyed,” Unacast found. .
However, the hipster mecca in Brooklyn took 13,000 people, causing a net loss of about $ 330 million.
“That’s a big chunk of forfeited discretionary spending in a small community with many local brands that are currently showing little sign of resilience or recovery,” the report said.
About 18,000 fled Astoria, costing the neighborhood about $ 1.29 billion in lost revenue. But 14,000 new residents flocked to the Queens neighborhood, putting Astoria “ahead of Williamsburg,” the findings say.
Retail and restaurants have also taken a significant hit under COVID-19 security restrictions this year, the company said.
There was 33 percent less pedestrian traffic in the store compared to last year and 34 percent less people in restaurants.
Unacast blamed those numbers on new residents who earned less.
“The popular interpretation is that this has to do with pedestrian traffic, but a tertiary cause is the net outflow in the population of urban neighborhoods around the world, combined with a reduction in average income and thus reduced purchasing power,” he said.
Unacast’s analysis comes after Manhattan apartment vacancy rates peaked in 14 years last month, with more than 16,000 vacant spaces.
“The big question is: how does real estate and retail in particular adapt to this?”, Says Walle.
With pole wires