The Kremlin has misread Navalny’s decision to fight, even from inside prison

Photographer: Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP / Getty Images

Russian officials were convinced that opposition leader Alexey Navalny would not return.

They had warned he would be jailed on arrival and the threat of new probes steadily raised amid allegations ranging from stealing donations from supporters to working for US intelligence. Even fellow Kremlin critics told the 44-year-old activist it was too dangerous to return from Berlin, where he was recovering from a nervous attack that he and Western capitals blamed on President Vladimir Putin.

But Navalny, convinced that he could only remain a political force from within the country, ignored their advice.

His dramatic return has put the Kremlin on the defensive. The tension is unwelcome in a year that would be about sealing control in elections this fall, as Russia recovered from the pandemic after Putin laid the foundation for extending his rule through 2036.

“Navalny’s plan is very simple: to become Putin’s number 1 headache and with his courage to inspire political activism,” said Fyodor Krasheninnikov, a political adviser close to the Kremlin critic. “If he had decided not to come back, it would have been a victory for Putin.”

Backers say strategy can work even when Navalny is in prison for years, which is what they expect. The Russian leader’s main opponent is betting that he will be able to bring enough supporters into the streets this year to show they won’t be intimidated. At the same time, he is counting on a West being revived by US President Joe Biden’s inauguration to increase outside pressure on the Kremlin.

It’s a risky bet.

Long sentence

The Kremlin is now determined to keep Navalny in prison for several years or more, breaking its former habit of giving him jail terms of no more than a few weeks at a time, according to two people close to the leadership who were condition. of anonymity to discuss matters that are not public. He could get as much as 3.5 years at a hearing scheduled for Feb. 2, with another case in the works that could add 10 more.

These people said the harder line comes from the Kremlin’s view that Navalny is working on behalf of Western governments – a charge he denies. At the same time, despite the brutal attempts of Russia-backed strongman Alexander Lukashenko to suppress them, the ongoing protests in Belarus have raised fears of public protests, they said. Authorities hope that Navalny’s very personal movement will lose direction once he is in prison.

Read more: Putin, Poison and the Importance of Alexey Navalny: QuickTake

This has not happened so far. A new video he and his team released on YouTube on Tuesday, revealing a grandiose Black Sea palace that they claimed belonged to Putin, which was viewed more than 40 million times in the first two days, a record for his group. The Kremlin has called the film’s claims untrue.

“They created a completely unnecessary crisis with dire national and international consequences,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a political adviser who worked for the presidential administration in the early 2000s. “The Kremlin is now playing on the Navalny site.”

The activist and his allies hope that his case will catalyze the public discontent that is simmering amid a 4% drop in real incomes and the deadlock of the coronavirus, pushing Putin’s viewing figures to record lows at one point last year. They are aiming at the parliamentary elections in September as an opportunity to send a signal of the magnitude of the civil misfortune.

The Levada Center A poll from last fall found that 20% of Russians said they approved of Navalny’s work, despite uniform negative coverage of him in the state media. Half said they disapproved.

Putin Support

“There will be no quick steps, but the regime’s erosion will certainly accelerate,” Krasheninnikov said. “This stress situation will force Putin and his environment to make mistakes.”

Of course, Kremlin critics have predicted for years that the impending collapse of Putin’s support would only be disappointing. Polls show that support for him remains strong.

An early test for opponents comes Saturday, as Navalny’s allies schedule rallies in dozens of cities. Authorities have already warned they would not grant permits and detained at least one organizer while simultaneously blocking websites promoting the events.

Blur profession?

Putin’s popularity has fallen from its peak

Source: Levada Center

While the confrontation with Navalny risks fueling popular anger over Putin’s continued rule, it could also hold the potential price of breaking the Kremlin’s most persistent opposition movement. The last major challenge – which led to Putin’s imprisonment of billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003 for Western protests – has meant that he rejects any form of resistance to his power.

“In Russia it is now more effective to fight the regime from prison than from exile,” said Khodorkovsky, who was forced to leave Russia in 2013 after his imprisonment. His case is a warning: he too returned from abroad knowing he would be imprisoned, but underestimated the Kremlin’s decision. “I thought I would get 3-4 years at the most, but it turned out to be 10 years.”

Contradiction