JERUSALEM (AP) – Israel’s divided government was headed for a collapse on Tuesday at midnight, a move that would lead to the country’s fourth election in less than two years and pose an unprecedented threat to Prime Minister’s long-term hold Benjamin Netanyahu on power.
Netanyahu, who has always labeled his opponents as weak “leftists”, is facing a trio of disaffected former aides who share his harsh ideology led by a popular lawmaker who recently broke away from the prime minister’s Likud party. Whether or not Netanyahu can fend off these challengers, the country will almost certainly be led by a right-wing politician opposed to concessions to the Palestinians, harming the upcoming Biden government’s hopes of restarting peace talks.
The prospects of Israel’s center-left bloc look worse than in previous games as its leader, Defense Secretary Benny Gantz, has entered into a fateful alliance with Netanyahu that is now crumbling. Gantz has lost the support of much of his base and the block is left without a leader.
Netanyahu and Gantz formed their coalition last May after battling three consecutive elections in a stalemate. They said they set aside their personal rivalries to form an “emergency government” aimed at getting the country through the health and economic crises caused by the pandemic. Under the deal, Gantz took on the new role of “deputy prime minister” and was assured that he would swap places with Netanyahu in a mid-term rotation agreement in November.
The direct cause of Tuesday’s expected collapse was that they didn’t reach a budget by midnight. This would automatically dissolve parliament and set new elections at the end of March.
But it really reflected the failure of a partnership plagued from the start by mutual hostility and mistrust. For seven months, Gantz has faced a number of indignities and been left out of the loop on important decisions, such as a series of US-brokered diplomatic deals with Arab countries. Netanyahu accuses Gantz’s Blue and White party of acting as “opposition within the government”.
At the heart of this dysfunctional relationship is Netanyahu’s corruption process. Gantz has accused Netanyahu of undermining their power-sharing deal in hopes of remaining in office during his trial, which will speed up in February as witnesses begin to fight. He and other critics believe Netanyahu hopes eventually to form a new government capable of appointing loyalists who can grant him immunity or dismiss the charges against him.
“A criminal suspect with three charges is dragging the country to a fourth round of elections,” Blue and White said Tuesday evening. “If there was no trial there would be a budget and there would be no elections.”
Netanyahu has been charged with fraud, breach of trust and bribes in a series of scandals accusing him of offering favors to powerful media figures in return for positive coverage of him and his family.
“The ongoing political crisis will continue as long as Mr. Netanyahu remains prime minister and no government can be formed without him,” said Yohanan Plesner, a former lawmaker who chairs the Israel Democracy Institute.
“I think it is quite safe to assume that this will not end until Mr. Netanyahu is replaced or if he finds a way, through legislation or political maneuvers, to suspend or suspend his trial altogether” , he said. .
In the previous three elections, Netanyahu was unable to form a majority coalition with his traditional religious and nationalist allies. Still, he controlled enough seats to prevent his opponents from forming an alternative coalition.
According to recent polls, that comparison appears to be changing, with some rivals poised to rule a parliamentary majority without him.
Those rivals are led by Gideon Saar, a stalwart in Netanyahu’s Likud who announced this month that he was breaking away and forming a new party. Saar, who once served as Netanyahu’s cabinet secretary, has accused the prime minister of turning Likud into a “cult of personality” aimed at ensuring the political survival of his leader.
If elections were held today, Saar’s party would come second behind Likud, giving him a right of veto over a Netanyahu-led government, according to polls. Saar has vowed not to serve under Netanyahu.
Naftali Bennett, another former aide who had a falling out with Netanyahu, leads a religious right-wing party that has also risen in the polls. And Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu’s former chief of staff and longtime cabinet minister, also says the prime minister is unfit to lead.
All of this rivalry is more personal than ideological, meaning that Israel’s next government – led by Netanyahu or not – will almost certainly have a right-wing ideology opposed to Palestinian independence and the continued construction of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. supports.
Recent polls show that Gantz, who appealed to left-wing voters in previous elections, may not be getting enough votes to even join the next Knesset.
Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, appears to be winning some of those voters, but not enough, according to the polls, to lead the next government. The left-wing Labor Party, which founded Israel and led the country for the first thirty years, is not expected to cross the threshold, while the far-left Meretz Party is expected to barely enter.
The Arab-majority Joint List is plagued with infighting, and it is unclear whether a regular party is willing to share power with them. An Arab-led party has never been part of an Israeli government.
In a televised address on Tuesday night, Netanyahu turned to his standard playbook, blaming Blue and White for the political collapse and saying that all of his challengers should rely on the “left” to form a government without him.
“We are against elections; this is a wrong decision by Blue and White, ”Netanyahu said. “But if elections are forced on us, I promise we will win.”
Despite the bold predictions, Netanyahu will have other factors against him. In the previous election, he used his close alliance with President Donald Trump as electoral possession.
That option will no longer be there after Joe Biden was sworn in as president on January 20. Biden is expected to return to the policies of his former boss, President Barack Obama, who had a stormy relationship with Netanyahu because of his treatment of the Palestinians. .
Netanyahu also has to face voters about his handling of the coronavirus crisis. Netanyahu accomplished a feat this week by making Israel one of the first countries in the world to begin vaccinating its population.
But it remains unclear how many people will be vaccinated in March. And as Israel faces a furious outbreak and the possibility of a third lockdown, angry voters can still punish it for the economic damage caused by the pandemic.