Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hoped to win the pandemic in the March 23 elections, but new rapidly spreading variants of COVID-19 have dashed that hope.
Why it matters: Netanyahu’s greatest political vulnerability is his handling of the pandemic. He has recognized that his poll numbers will be directly related to the number of vaccinations, new infections and deaths, and to his ability to reopen the economy.
He had wanted to base his election drive about Israel’s leading vaccination campaign, with 21% of people over 16 already receiving both doses, including 70% in the highest priority groups (medical staff and people over 60).
- But Israel is also in the midst of its worst COVID-19 wave yet, with daily death tolls hitting record highs. The capacity of the medical system is stretched almost to a breaking point.
- Four weeks of lockdown have only just begun to slow down the number of new cases from Israel, which remains among the highest in the world, adjusted for population. Israeli officials say the rapid spread is due to new virus variants.
- The government will likely extend the lockdown for another week or two.
Between the lines: The infection rate is particularly high in ultra-Orthodox communities, who have largely failed to comply with lockdown rules and keep schools open even when closed elsewhere.
- Netanyahu has been harshly criticized for failing to force the closure of the ultra-Orthodox community, which is a significant part of his right-wing political bloc.
- As police tried to enforce the lockdown in recent days, violent riots broke out in ultra-Orthodox cities. That only resulted in more criticism of Netanyahu.
- A Channel 12 poll published Tuesday found that 61% of Israelis – and 52% of right-wing voters – want ultra-Orthodox parties to be excluded from the next coalition government.
The state of affairs: Recent polls found Netanyahu’s Likud party to be stable with 29-30 seats, with public praise for the vaccination campaign offset by criticism of the lockdown and rising death toll.
What’s next: Netanyahu’s wider political bloc is short of the 61-seat majority needed to form the next coalition. Without a positive change in COVID-19 numbers in March, he will have a hard time achieving it.