Members of the German Green Party, including co-leader Annalena Baerbock (C) and local candidate Katharina Fegebank (CL), respond to the first exit polls that gave the Greens 25.5% of the vote in Hamburg’s city elections on 23 February 2020 in Hamburg. , Germany.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Germany’s political establishment has been on the move since Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in 2018 that she would not run for a fifth term.
Since then, amid constant speculation about who will become Germany’s next leader, new political trends have emerged in Europe’s largest and most influential economy.
For example, the Green Party has grown in popularity among middle-class liberal voters, thanks to a shift of voters away from the political mainstream and a more environmentally conscious electorate.
Recent voter surveys and several state elections show that support for the Greens has soared that it could play a role in the formation of the next government after the national elections in September.
Four polls held in Germany in mid-April gave support to the party at between 20-22%, making the Green Party the second most popular party after Angela Merkel’s CDU / CSU alliance.
This center-right political group, consisting of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, has been dominant in German politics for years. But support for the alliance was around 28-31% in the same polls this month.
Germany’s political direction could become clearer this week as the Greens and CDU / CSU announce which candidates they will propose to run for chancellor. On Monday, the Green Party confirmed that Annalena Baerbock will be its candidate for the next German chancellor.
Bundestag member and former leader of the German Green Party, Jürgen Trittin, told CNBC that Baerbock’s candidacy was a “historic decision” and a new chapter for the party.
“Now for the first time this (election) race is taking place between the Green Party on the one hand and the Conservatives on the right,” he said. Trittin he said believed that Baerbock would be broadly supported by the party as a whole.
The CDU / CSU is also expected to announce this week who will use it in the vote on September 26, but it is unclear whether CDU leader Armin Laschet and CSU leader Markus Söder will lead the Conservatives into the next election.
Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding on Monday put the odds that the CDU / CSU will lead the next German government at 65%, with the Greens as a junior partner (a 95% probability).
However, the Schmieding also said there was a 35% chance that the Greens could form a government without the CDU / CSU. It could instead form a coalition with the Social Democratic party (the SPD, currently a junior coalition partner with the CDU / CSU) and with the liberal FDP or the left as a third partner.
Only a ‘green-red-red’ coalition between the Greens, the SPD and the left-wing Left Party would usher in a major shift in German policy, particularly towards tougher labor, housing and product market rules driving Germany’s trend growth. would diminish, ”Schmieding noted on Monday.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s macro-strategy team said in a note Monday that “it is no longer unlikely that the next German chancellor could come from the Greens after the federal election in September.” Nonetheless, the bank still considers a CDU / CSU Green coalition as its base case, as it expects the Conservative alliance to regain polling momentum.
Speaking with CNBC Monday, Berenberg’s Schmieding said a power vacuum caused by Merkel’s departure was to be expected.
“ When an older leader leaves, and Angela Merkel will not run anymore, there is a bit of a vacuum and it is good that we see some of that at the European level and, to a more significant extent, at the German level. , ”He told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.