A series of back-and-forth retaliatory actions and antagonistic statements between Washington and Tehran are putting the Biden administration’s plans for a return to the Iran nuclear deal in greater danger by the day.
“You can’t act with impunity. Be careful,” President Joe Biden told reporters on Friday, describing his message to Iran after ordering airstrikes on buildings in Eastern Syria that the Pentagon said were being used by Iranian-backed militias. .
The attacks were in retaliation for a Feb. 15 attack in which missiles struck Erbil International Airport in Iraq, which is home to coalition forces. The attack, which Western and Iraqi officials attribute to Iranian-backed militias, killed a contractor from the US-led coalition and injured several others, including a US military. Iran dismisses allegations of its involvement.
All of this doesn’t bode well for what the Biden administration sees as a foreign policy priority: a return to the Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the JCPOA, which was drafted under the Obama administration with various world powers and involving economic sanctions. were lifted against Iran in exchange for slowing down its nuclear program.
The deal has almost collapsed since the Trump administration unilaterally dumped it in 2018, reimposing sweeping sanctions on Iran that have paralyzed its economy.
Whether and when the deal can be revived is a crucial question for the foreign policy and legacy of the Biden team in the Middle East. Former US diplomat Joseph Westphal, who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia during Obama’s second term, doesn’t see it happening in the short or even medium term.
“I don’t think we’ll see a deal,” Westphal told CNBC’s Dan Murphy Monday. “I think we’ll see the start of negotiations to get to a deal. The end of the year is coming soon. And I think these things take a long time.”
An invitation and a rejection
Earlier in February, the Biden team took an important step in offering informal negotiations with Tehran, heralding the US’s first diplomatic outreach in more than four years. Iran’s leadership over the weekend turned down the invitation.
The attempt at some sort of rapprochement is a difficult one for Biden. Facing substantial domestic opposition to the deal with Iran, he does not want to appear ‘soft’ against the country’s regime, especially at a time when Iran is expanding its uranium enrichment and supplies in violation of the deal, measures it bring it closer to the land. ability to make bombs.
Tehran emphasizes that this is a response to US sanctions and that its actions could be reversed if the sanctions are lifted first; Biden, meanwhile, says he will only lift economic penalties if Tehran reverses its violations. So the two are at an impasse.
Tehran last week restricted the UN nuclear watchdog’s access to its nuclear activities, further jeopardizing the deal, although inspectors still have some access. And on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of being behind an attack on one of its tankers off the coast of Oman on Friday. Iran denies any involvement.
Attempts to level the playing field
Still, not everyone believes a return to the JCPOA cannot happen this year. Ayham Kamel, Middle East practice head at the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy, sees the current escalations as an attempt to level the playing field.
“There is no easy path for JCPOA plus. I think whatever is happening in the region right now – part of the escalation in Iraq, part of the escalation in Iran, even the Iranians who have the first offer for direct negotiations with the United States. US reject – I think those are all pre-negotiation negotiations, ”Kamel said.
“It’s an attempt to really balance the field, the Iranians are trying to get the most out of this process. The JCPOA will happen, re-entry will take place sometime this year in my opinion, but it will be difficult.”
Kamel added that the Iranian leadership itself remains divided over the return to the accord, as it weighs the need for economic relief from sanctions and opposition to the crackdown on US demands.
“The supreme leader wants a deal, but many in the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) don’t necessarily want to see a weak start to negotiations,” he said, referring to Iran’s powerful and ideological parallel military power. “They want negotiations to start from a strong position, and the regional escalation is all part of that.”
Others believe a return to the deal is inevitable simply because Iran’s economy has been so devastated by the sanctions. The currency is in free fall, exports have been slashed and Iranians are struggling to afford food and medicine.
“I think eventually a deal is possible,” Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told CNBC earlier this month, “because the Iranians need money.”