The Europe decision delivers a devastating blow to NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)

Today, NASA’s decision to launch one of their future missions on a commercial rocket is hardly a surprise. After all, the agency is now ready to let their astronauts fly on boosters and spacecraft built and operated by SpaceX. Increased competition makes it cheaper and easier than ever to get to space, so it makes sense that NASA would reap the benefits of a market they helped create.

So the recent announcement that NASA’s Europe Clipper mission will officially fly on a commercial launch vehicle may seem more of the same. But this is not just any mission. It is a flagship interplanetary probe designed to study and map Jupiter’s moon Europa in unprecedented detail, and will serve as a scout for a future mission that will actually land the moon’s icy surface. Due to its extreme distance from Earth and the intense radiation of the Jovian system, it is considered one of the most ambitious missions NASA has ever attempted.

With no margin for error and with a total cost of over $ 4 billion, the fact that NASA relies on a commercially operated booster to carry this exceptionally valuable payload is significant in itself. But perhaps more importantly, until now Europe Clipper was mandated by Congress to fly on NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS). At least in part, this was due to the incredible power of the SLS, which the Clipper on the fastest route to Jupiter. But more pragmatically, it was also seen as a way to ensure that work on the Shuttle-based supermassive missile continues as soon as possible to be ready for the mission launch window in 2024.

But with that deadline fast approaching and engineers felt the pressure to put the finishing touches on the spacecraft before docking it to the launch vehicle, NASA appealed to Congress for the flexibility to fly. Europe Clipper on a commercial missile. The agency’s official rule is that they cannot miss an SLS launch for the Europe mission while supporting the Artemis Moon program at the same time, but by the Clipper To fly on another rocket in the 2021 Consolidated Appropriations Act, Congress actually removed one of the few justifications that still existed for the troubled Space Launch System.

To Europe, eventually

There is no doubt that the SLS, at least on paper, would have been the ideal vehicle for the Europe Clipper on his epic journey. The megarocket would have enough energy to send the approximately 6,065 kg (13,371 lb) probe on direct orbit to Jupiter during its closest passage in 2024, bringing the planet within 611 million kilometers (380 million miles) of Earth. On this flight path, it would take a little less than three years for the Clipper to get into orbit around Jupiter and begin its scientific mission.

Unfortunately, there is simply no substitute for the SLS in terms of raw power. While future vehicles from SpaceX, Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance may be attractive options, they just won’t be ready in time for the 2024 launch window. Even if they are operational then, which is by no means a guarantee, they certainly won’t run enough. have registered to prove their reliability. NASA could potentially wait until one of the later launch windows in 2025 or 2026 to give commercial operators more time to bring their next generation of heavy vehicles online, but that’s not in the cards for now.

So how do you get to Europe without the massive boost from the SLS? In a word, slow. While there has been some previous speculation that the spacecraft could be equipped with a small ‘kick-stage’ to compensate for the reduced initial speed, NASA’s preliminary launch contract information specifies that the spacecraft will use gravity maneuvers by flying what is known as a Mars Earth-Gravity-Assist (MEGA) track. This makes it possible Europe Clipper to reach its destination without any hardware modifications, but the flip side of this complex orbital dance is that the journey will take more than twice as long, with the probe not reaching Europe until 2030 at the earliest.

No decision has yet been made as to which missile will end up with the Clipper, and the decision is unlikely to come until next year after the completion of a formal selection process. That said, as it has the highest payload of any currently operational rockets in the world, the SpaceX Falcon Heavy is by far the most likely choice. Even still, it may need to be started in unused fully replaceable mode.

Goodbye, Shelby

This first public acknowledgment that NASA no longer intends to fly Europe Clipper on the Space Launch System comes just days after Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, one of the SLS program’s most staunch supporters, announced he would retire next year. Concerned that President Obama’s cancellation of the Constellation program in 2010 would mean that the Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, would no longer be the center of the U.S. space industry, Senator Shelby fought hard to make SLS a flagship program. would be rivaled by the Saturn V and Space Shuttle:

While few would complain about politicians actively interested in space exploration, and keeping hundreds of well-paid space travel jobs in his district was a laudable achievement, Shelby’s support of NASA came at a cost. He was vehemently opposed to NASA’s partnerships with commercial launch providers, even going so far as to call the agency’s early contracts with companies like SpaceX a “ faith-based initiative ” and “ a welfare program for the commercial space industry, ” like the young sky. and aerospace companies. had yet to demonstrate that they could actually build a booster capable of reaching a job.

It’s a safe bet that Senator Shelby’s replacement will take a similarly optimistic approach to Marshall Space Flight Center, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll ignore the leaps and bounds the commercial launch providers have made in recent years. While private industry is rapidly repeating itself through cutting-edge engine and booster technology, the Space Launch System’s reliance on shuttle-derived hardware conceived in the 1970s is only getting harder to defend.

Difficult decisions ahead

Between the shameful “Green Run” failure in January, the loss of the Europe Clipper mission and the retirement of Senator Shelby, the future of the Space Launch System has never been more uncertain. Add to that a White House that’s much more concerned with fighting a deadly pandemic than leaving new boatprints on Mars or the moon, and it’s not hard to see how the often-delayed and incredibly expensive program is finally running out .

To be on the safe side, the SLS will fly at least once. NASA and Boeing are preparing to repeat the failed engine test in the coming weeks, and too much time and money has been invested for the Artemis I mission to fail. Even if NASA eventually decides to phase out the SLS program in favor of further commercial cooperation, the shakedown flight is just as much a test of the Orion crew vehicle. With multiple Orion capsules already under construction for future Artemis missions, development of the Apollo-like capsule will almost certainly continue with or without the SLS.