The Dutch vote amid strict blocking of the corona virus

Dutch voters went to the polls on Monday at a general election that is largely seen as a referendum on the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Incumbent and janitorial Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are expected to win a fourth term in office, although his party has been rocked by scandals and allegations that it mishandled the pandemic.

Three days of voting started Monday morning and will end Wednesday evening, with the vote spread due to the ongoing public health crisis.

Opinion polls show that the VVD is at the forefront of voter popularity, although it is followed by the opposition right-wing, nationalist Freedom Party led by the controversial figure Geert Wilders.

Four polls published last week predicted that Rutte’s VVD party could take between 30 and 40 seats in parliament, compared to polls showing Wilders’ Freedom Party could win 19-24 seats. The Christian Democratic party will receive the third highest number of seats and is expected to win 15-19 seats.

As the polls show, the VVD is unlikely to get enough seats to rule alone in the 150-seat parliament, the House of Representatives, making another coalition government a likely outcome.

That may not be that easy; in 2017 it took 225 days for the VVD to form a coalition government with three other parties (Christian Democratic Appeal, Democrats 66 and ChristenUnie) – the longest time it took to form a coalition in Dutch history.

The VVD van Rutte has not seen the pandemic for a few turbulent months. A recent child support scandal, in which thousands of families were falsely accused of child benefit fraud, led to a massive resignation of the entire government in January.

Rutte has remained in a caring role ever since and remains a popular politician despite some unpopular restrictions put in place during the pandemic. He is widely expected to lead a fourth cabinet, although the composition of an expected coalition remains uncertain.

Melanie Debono, Capital Economics’ Europe economist, warned in a note last week that forming a coalition government could take even longer than the last record of 225 days, although she noted that this is unlikely to impact the economy.

However, in the Dutch multi-party system, the VVD will fail to rule alone and greater fragmentation than usual means that coalition-building could take longer than the record of 225 days in 2017! campaign for a higher minimum wage and lower taxes for full-time workers. While some of these plans will eventually water down as the reality of coalition politics bites, other parties are similarly arguing for supportive fiscal policies.

The Netherlands is one of the larger and prosperous economies in the EU and has not fared so badly during the pandemic. The Dutch economy contracted by 4% in 2020, compared to the 6.8% contraction in the broader eurozone.

Economists largely attribute this better-than-dreaded economic contraction from the country’s less severe initial lockdown last spring, the export-oriented economy and the fact that it is less dependent on tourism a sector that collapsed during the pandemic.

The Dutch economy did relatively well in 2020, “noted Debono,” and after expanding in the fourth quarter (the fourth quarter), the year ended closer to pre-crisis levels than the other major economies. The downturn was superficial because the first lockdown was not as severe as elsewhere, the Dutch were more used to working from home and tourism makes up a relatively small part of the economy. “

However, the government’s attitude to lockdown changed over the winter as the number of cases increased dramatically, prompting the government to introduce a strict lockdown in January (by Dutch standards). The stricter measures, including a curfew, sparked riots in parts of the country.

Like its neighbors, the Netherlands has seen an increase in Covid infections in recent weeks largely attributable to the spread of more virulent variants of the virus.

In addition, the Netherlands was one of the last countries in the bloc to start its coronavirus vaccination program, and vaccinations are slow.

The vaccination program will no doubt be further hampered following the decision by the Netherlands (and many other countries) to interrupt vaccinations using the AstraZeneca / University of Oxford injection due to concerns about possible side effects, despite the World Health Organization saying there are no link between the injection and an increased risk of developing blood clots.

Bars, restaurants and gyms have closed, while non-essential stores were able to reopen for a limited number of customers in early March, by appointment only. From March 16, stores may reopen for a limited number of customers, as long as there is enough space between them. The curfew – the first since the Nazi occupation in World War II – is expected to remain in effect until the end of March. Public gatherings of more than two people are also prohibited.

Meanwhile, anti-lockdown sentiment continues with riot police using a water cannon to break up an anti-lockdown demonstration in The Hague this weekend. This latest lockdown means that the country’s economy is unlikely to avoid a contraction in the first quarter.

Although the government started to ease the lockdown from 3^rd In March, many businesses will be closed for two-thirds of the first quarter (the first quarter) and others, such as restaurants, will be everywhere. But the Netherlands is still relatively well positioned and, as elsewhere, GDP growth should recover from the second quarter, ”said Debono of Capital Economics.