Photo Source: NASA – Public Domain
The 21st century serves as a turning point in the acceleration of climate instability caused by human-generated greenhouse gases, as CO2 emissions are much higher than in the last century. It is also a defining timeline of an astonishing loss of ice mass of 500% more than the last decade of the last century. This has never happened so quickly in the history of mankind.
The proof is in the numbers. For example, the combined loss of ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica is a real eye-opener: “The assessment is supported by NASA and the European Space Agency … The team calculated that the two ice sheets together lost 81 billion tons per year in the 1990s. compared to 475 billion tons of ice per year in the 2010s – a six-fold increase. (Source: Greenland, Antarctica is melting six times faster than in the 1990s, Global Climate Change, NASA, March 16, 2020)
In all fairness, this article should end here, as 475 billion tons of ice mass loss per year versus 81 billion tons per year within just two decades is so compelling and daunting and exaggerated that nothing more needs to be said. But there’s more….
That disturbing signal is just the starting point for much bigger problems on the road. Recent research conducted in West Antarctica has uncovered an entirely new ball game, the prospect of glaciers collapsing, in toto, large glaciers and major meltdowns, incredible yet clearly possible yet largely ignored by every major country. If it were otherwise, countries would convert fossil fuels into renewable energy sources and install mirrored technology to reflect solar radiation back to space, for example contact: Dr. Ye Tao at Harvard University:
https://www.meerreflection.com/ and / or paint roofs with “ultra white” paint known as “cool roofs” that reflect 98% of the sunlight: https://www.bbc.com/news/science- environment -56749105. NYC and California are already promoting ‘cool roofs’.
Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier (100 miles wide and 4,000 feet deep), also known as the Doomsday Glacier, labeled by researchers as “A Climate Time Bomb”, is an ice shelf in West Antarctica that sits next to the equally infamous Pine Island glacier.
A new discovery at Thwaites is terrifying and nearly impossible to fathom. Thwaites melt at the key points that anchor it to land. The consequences of the total release would / are likely to be earth-shaking if, and when, the 74,000-square-mile ice block loses, but even more earth-shattering, it could destroy the entire West Antarctic ice sheet. That’s more than 10 meters of sea level rise!
How fast? Stay tuned for updates.
But seriously, how can anyone know for sure when it will collapse completely? Guesses can come. Will it take decades or less or more or much more? It’s worth noting that climate models have been way too conservative, many climate scientists’ estimates have proven to be wrong for decades. Climate systems scientist Paul Beckwith, University of Ottawa, says global warming has progressed so unexpectedly, so fast that “2030 is the new 2100”. The implications of that are just too much to think about.
Significantly, new research techniques used at Thwaites are leading to much better scientific analysis than ever before. The techniques have given scientists the best ever look at what is happening under the massive ice sheet, and have yielded large amounts of new data that will take time and additional research to properly analyze.
A robotic submarine named Ran, after the Norse goddess of the sea, examines the bottom of the glacier and measures the force, temperature, oxygen content and salinity of the ocean currents flowing beneath the glacier. At the same time, the ship’s sonar from above makes it possible to map the ocean floor with high resolution. As a result, scientists have already noticed three major flows of water heating the glacier’s underlying connections to land. As a result, for the first time, scientists have the ability to collect more accurate data to model the dynamics of the glacier. This is important to help clarify the world’s uncertainty about the global sea level outlook.
According to the scientific team’s initial reports, “Our observations show that hot water collides from all sides into fixation points critical to the stability of the ice shelf, a scenario that could lead to detachment and retraction,” said the study, 9 April in the journal Scientific Advances. In other words, the entire ice shelf can come off and then flow into the ocean. (Source: Antarctica’s ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Close to Tipping Point, Unmanned Sub Reveals, Live Science, April 14, 2021)
Thwaites is only half of a larger potential problem on a scale people would rather not think about. Researchers recently published an article on the neighboring Pine Island Glacier crossing a tipping point due to warming water, similar to the dilemma surrounding the surprisingly advanced stage of deterioration found at Thwaites. (Source: The Tipping Points and Early Warning Indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, European Geosciences Union, The Cryosphere, March 25, 2021).
It is difficult, in fact almost impossible, to imagine the consequences of an actual complete glacier collapse (s), especially since it has never happened on such a scale in the history of mankind. The referenced Cryosphere article provides a general view: “Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to the ongoing and future changes is the instability of the marine ice sheet: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, the internal dynamics of the ice can drive a self-sustaining retreat, causing a glacier to lose irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. suffers, ”Ibid.
It is not exactly rocket science to determine the meaning of “rapid and substantial ice loss”. As such, it’s probably not too early for every major coastal city in the world to start planning to build sea walls. Already, low-lying areas like Miami Beach are raising streets by 2 to 3 feet (a photo can be seen at: “Miami Beach is raising streets by 2 feet to combat rising seas”).
Meanwhile, CO2 emissions continue to set new record highs every year and unfortunately methane emissions, which amplify global warming more than CO2, are increasing like never before, hindering more and more global warming as these greenhouse gases cover the atmosphere and retain heat. More CO2 in the atmosphere equals more heat.
The current atmospheric CO2 scorecard is as follows on Mauna Loa, Hawaii: 417.64 ppm (March 2021) vs.414.74 ppm (March 2020) vs 368.13 ppm (2000).
Fossil CO2 emissions have increased by nearly 40% to 36 billion tons per year, compared to 26 billion tons at the turn of the century. That’s a massive increase that continues to grow relentlessly. As such, the outlook for any appearance of a stable climate system is decidedly negative. Over time, the effects of a shattered climate system will shock people beyond their darkest nightmares and unwittingly catch the world’s political leadership flat-footed.
By then it will be too late, turning points cannot be reversed!
Postscript: “The last time atmospheric CO2 levels were so high was over 3 million years ago, when the temperature was 2 ° C-3 ° C (3.6 ° F-5.4 ° F) higher than during the pre-industrial era, and sea level was 15-25 meters (50-80 feet) higher than it is now. ”(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Climate.gov August 14, 2020) Logical question: what about the sea level of 50 -80 feet higher when with CO2 the same as the current CO2? Answer: The normal time difference between rising atmospheric CO2 and rising temperatures leading to a rising sea level is a decade or more.