The demand for gasoline has risen, says Global Forecaster

The prediction comes because carmakers have recently turned to boost their EV fleets, after years of industry skepticism about whether car buyers would ever embrace all-electric models. General Motors Co. said it would stop selling gas vehicles by 2035. Volvo Cars of Sweden has said it would be fully electric by 2030.

The world will have 60 million electric vehicles on its roads by 2026, the IEA said, up from 7.2 million in 2019. The agency is closely monitoring EV trends as an important signal for gasoline and crude oil demand.

The shift to electric vehicles is the result of government regulation, strong incentives in developed countries and wider consumer acceptance of the technology, thanks in part to popular models such as those sold by Tesla. Inc.

EVs still make up a small portion of the world’s total vehicle fleet, and carmakers say they expect a growing demand for gas-fired combustion engines in the coming years, particularly in the developing world.

The forecast comes at a time when the pandemic has turned global fuel consumption upside down and raises questions about whether it will change the world’s energy mix more broadly in the coming years. For years, energy observers have debated the timing of the so-called peak oil, a point at which crude oil demand will begin to decline. Amid the demand-shattering pandemic that began last year, some forecasters, including those from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, have said that in the developed world that day may already have arrived.

The IEA said on Wednesday that global crude oil demand is recovering, reaching as high as 104 million barrels per day by 2026, about 4% more than in 2019, thanks to developing countries. Economic powers such as China, India and other Asian countries will account for 90% of the net increase in oil demand over the next five years, the agency said.

But for the first time, the agency said it no longer predicts that demand for gasoline – the product that has fueled the world’s thirst for crude oil for years – will no longer fully recover.

“We don’t think gas mileage will return to 2019 levels,” said Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director. However, global demand for jet fuel will not recover to pre-pandemic levels before 2024, the agency said.

Amid widespread government-imposed travel restrictions due to the coronavirus, the IEA said daily gasoline demand fell by a record 2.9 million barrels in 2020, down more than 10% from the 26.6 million barrels per day burned in 2019.

The use of electric vehicles is not the only thing that is driving down demand. The IEA and the US Department of Energy in a report last month cited the improved fuel efficiency of gas-fired cars. The US agency said it expects US gas mileage in the transportation sector to peak in 2022.

The IEA said global demand for gasoline will return as economies reopen. But the shift to electric vehicles in wealthier countries is now accelerating so quickly that demand shortages there outpace expected growth in developing countries like Indonesia, India and China.

Globally, plug-in electric vehicles accounted for about 4.2% of new car sales last year, with sales up 43% to 3.24 million vehicles, according to ev-volumes.com, a research group investigating electric sales. tracks cars. In Europe, where electric car sales are booming, plug-in electric vehicles accounted for 10.5% of new cars sold in the fourth quarter of 2020.

“E-mobility has won the race,” Volkswagen Chief Executive Herbert Diess told reporters this week as he unveiled major new investments in automotive battery factories and electric charging stations.

Mr Diess said battery electric vehicles would account for 50% of global new Volkswagen car sales by 2030. However, he said that conventional combustion engine vehicles would continue to dominate in some markets.

“We will continue to sell ICEs for longer in some regions than in others,” he said. “E-mobility will come at different speeds worldwide, depending on local policies and the supply of CO2-free energy.”

Write to David Hodari at [email protected] and William Boston at [email protected]