Washington and Tehran will eventually be able to negotiate a nuclear deal as Iran needs relief from economic sanctions, according to a senior adviser at a US think tank.
“I think that ultimately a deal is possible because the Iranians need money,” said Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The US and Iran both seem interested in returning to the negotiating table, but have not agreed on who should take the first step. The Biden administration last week offered to start talks with Tehran, but Iran has repeatedly stressed that the US must lift sanctions to start the process. Washington has so far opposed those calls.
In addition, Iran’s new deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is “certainly not helpful” and does not meet what was previously allowed, Goldberg said.
Iran’s parliament passed a law blocking IAEA inspections, but both sides said on Sunday that the “necessary verification and monitoring activities” will continue for up to three months.
Tan Feng Qin of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore said Iran is aware that preventing inspections could have drawbacks.
The three-month delay “gives the US and Iran some space and time to try to work out the solution to the sequencing problem,” he told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”
Goldberg also remains optimistic that a deal can be reached.
“Everything you see, all the threats, the terrorism, the threats in the Gulf, the seizure of tankers, the nuclear program, taking hostages, these are all different extortion tactics to get money and get relief from sanctions,” said he to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday. “That means a deal is possible.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Sanctions that harm Iran’s economy
Heavy sanctions on Iran – imposed by the Trump administration after it pulled out of the 2015 agreement – are devastating to Tehran’s economy.
According to the IMF, the last time Iran saw its GDP grow was in 2017, and the Islamic Republic only had access to $ 8.8 billion in foreign exchange reserves last year. That’s down from $ 12.7 billion in 2019 and $ 121.6 billion in 2018.
“They are suffering from the sanctions imposed by President Trump, the so-called maximum pressure campaign,” Goldberg said.
“Obviously they need access to money, they need emergency aid, and they want to trigger a crisis to try and force Biden’s hand into some sort of talks that include sanction tools,” he added.
However, questions remain about what the deal will look like.
Iran has said its violations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are reversible and can be reversed. But Goldberg disagreed.
“There are many steps that are not reversible,” he said. “The technical know-how they have gained in testing advanced centrifuges is something we cannot put back in the bottle.”
He also pointed out that the deal will expire with expiration dates for curbing Iran’s nuclear program.
“Since [the JCPOA is] already five years old, we’re not in the period when the deal is in Iran’s favor anyway, so that’s a big question whether the Biden administration and their European and Asian allies would want to go back to a deal or just stand and stand negotiate a new deal, ”he said.