The last few weeks have been the deadliest coronavirus pandemic in the United States, and residents of most counties are still at extremely high risk of contracting the virus. At the same time, transmission across the country appears to be slowing down, with the number of new average cases on Jan. 29 down 40 percent from its peak in the US three weeks earlier.
Other indicators reinforce the current downward trend in cases. Hospital admissions have fallen significantly from record highs in early January. The number of tests per day has also decreased, which may obscure the real toll of the virus, but the degree of positivity from those tests has also decreased, indicating that the delayed spread is real. Still, the average reported daily death rate for the past seven days remains above 3,000, compared to less than 1,000 per day in September and October.
Hospital admissions
Improve.
100,000
1 Oct.
January 29
-24%
New tests every day
With fewer tests, more cases are missed.
2 million
1 Oct.
January 29
-11%
Positivity rate
Improve.
10%
1 Oct.
January 29
-5 pct.
pts.
Note: Tests are presented as 7-day averages. Positive test percentages are calculated using cumulative numbers from the past seven days and exclude peaks prior to the time period shown. The positivity rate was higher in the spring, when testing capacity was extremely limited.·Source: The Covid Tracking Project.
The country’s peaks were extremely high: In the two weeks leading up to January 8 alone, nearly 1 percent of the U.S. population tested positive for the virus. That high premise means that even after the major drop, hospital admissions from Covid-19 remain at the levels of early December, when ICs were nearing capacity in much of the country. They are currently almost twice as high as previous spring and summer peaks.
Experts say the decline could mark a turning point in the outbreak after months of increasing caseloads. But new, more contagious variants threaten to disrupt progress and could even take the number of cases to a new high if they catch on, especially if the roll-out of the national vaccine faces hurdles.
Variants discovered in the United Kingdom and South Africa have both been found in the United States. Vaccine manufacturers have said their drugs appear less effective against the South African variety. Other variants are also popping up: Researchers have discovered a California variant, and one from Brazil that shares similarities with the South African variety has first appeared in the United States.
The variants may have already sparked new outbreaks in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, and federal officials have warned that the faster-spreading UK variant could become the dominant one in the United States in March. But at this point, their presence in the United States does not appear to have significantly undermined an overall downward trend. While transmission remains dangerously high in most of the country, every state is seeing a decline in the number of new cases. Hospital admissions have also fallen across the country.