As vaccine roll-out in countries around the world is accelerating – or in some cases moving ahead – the SARS-CoV-2 strain has introduced some new features of its own, mainly in the form of rapid genetic mutations. There is some evidence that variants from recent months have made the virus more contagious, or in one case possibly more deadly.
Virus variants are unavoidable and often benign. The new coronavirus has likely mutated numerous times without drawing the attention of epidemiologists. But new strains identified in the UK, South Africa, Brazil and California have given some infectious disease experts a pause.
Several studies indicate that the strain known as the B117 variant, which is common in the UK, is as much as 70 percent more transmissible than the original virus. Two analyzes in California suggested that a new West Coast strain called B.1.426 accounted for a quarter of the infections they studied. As the news peaks between infection peaks and inoculation attempts, it may seem like the world has entered a race between variant and vaccine.
“The change from mutation is quite rapid,” said Dr. Irwin Redlener, pediatrician and disaster preparedness adviser to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio. ‘We don’t know where it’s going. This is the reality that we don’t know what to expect. What we are more concerned about is that it could mutate to become resistant to the vaccines or partially resistant to the vaccines. That would be awful. We could modify the vaccine, but it would slow everything down. “
All in all, the arrival of new, threatening species shouldn’t change the behavior of the average person, three epidemiologists and public health advisers told the Daily Beast. “In terms of vaccines and mitigation, this doesn’t change mitigation strategies because we know mitigation works,” said Dr. Arnold Monto, University of Michigan epidemiologist and professor of public health. “But it just means we have to be all the more serious about following these kinds of rules.”
“I think this reinforces the urgency of every aspect of the pandemic response in the first place,” reiterated Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, Vice Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “Not just vaccination, but contact tracking testing, precautionary measures, and general vigilance … it takes a lot more than vaccinations because we generally don’t have enough vaccines in the short term.”
The British kind
Health officials in the UK first announced the discovery of a new strain in mid-December – just a week after it became the first country in the world to administer a vaccine. At a press conference, National Health Secretary Matt Hancock revealed that the new mutation had been seen in more than 1,000 patients there, sparking another wave of strict lockdowns across the country. The species is thought to date back to mid-September. In late December, its spread correlated with a massive rise in the number of COVID-19 infections across the country.
The phrase “more contagious” can be misleading, Monto said. For example, data on the new species does not tell us that someone exposed to it is more likely to become infected than someone exposed to the old species under identical conditions. It specifically refers to the speed at which the viruses reproduce.
“Let’s look at this in terms of what we know,” said Monto. “What we know is that this virus replicates itself better. Less of this virus is needed in an individual to cause an infection. How do we know that? We don’t know this in terms of ‘people in a room and how many get infected with one variant versus another’. But what is very clear is that this virus is more efficient and it has taken over from the old virus. That tells us it has some kind of advantage in reproducing. “
On Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in a press conference that the dominant variant there could be 30 percent more deadly than the original. The conclusions came from an article published by the New and Emerging Virus Threats Advisory Group – a study that, Monto stated, was based on a very small number of patients in just a handful of settings.
“A lot of other things could be related to an increase in the death rate,” he said, “even if, like in the UK, you have a higher number of people in care. It’s based on small numbers, so we really can’t say anything now. We cannot speculate. “
“It was a statement he made,” Redlener said of Johnson raising the alarm. ‘There wasn’t really much evidence. But he drew a conclusion and went public with it … For now, I’ll say Boris Johnson should have held his statement until there was more evidence. “
The South African tribe
Not long after the British strain was first announced, a variant called B.1.351 appeared in South Africa. According to the CDC, the new species shared some mutations with its British predecessor. It also seemed to have a higher transmission speed. Most concerning about the South African strain, however, was a new mutation in the genetic code that some experts feared would reduce the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. Some preliminary studies – some peer-reviewed – found that the E484K mutation in the South African variant limited the effectiveness of antibodies by up to 50 percent.
“It’s definitely a concern,” said Redlener, referring to a report on NBC’s Richard Engel investigations. It’s alarming because a legitimate scientist mentioned it. What we don’t know is how reliable his studies were that led him to that conclusion. “
Monto found the conclusions less alarming, noting that the studies stemmed from a small amount of research and very few real-life cases. “Basically, they are trying in a lab to see if the blood from vaccines neutralizes the variants just as well as the original virus,” said Dr. Monto. “It seems they are and so far there are different papers. One says their test is good. Another says it’s not that good, but still okay. “
Other types
Another new variant was discovered in Japan among four travelers from Brazil, according to the CDC. Although relatively less is known about the Brazilian variety, Reuters reported on Friday that the new species is responsible for almost half of the new infections in Manaus, the largest city in the Brazilian state of Amazonas.
Last summer, a SARS-CoV-2 strain surfaced in Denmark in collaboration with the country’s mink ranch, according to WHO. The country killed 17 million minks to prevent the virus from spreading to humans.
In California, scientists found a new variant in late December, not long after the state experienced its deadliest surge in the pandemic. According to the Los Angeles Times, two research groups observed the new shape while looking for evidence that the British species had traveled west. Also highly transferable, it now appears to be the fastest growing variety in the state. Despite the discovery, local officials and media have largely blamed residents, who they claim no longer adhere to lockdown guidelines.
“It’s a very complicated question: what causes an outbreak in a particular place,” said Redlener. “A lot has to do with basic conformity. But in addition, there may be other species that simply have not been identified. We feel many things in the dark. It’s a lot of guesswork and speculation. We just have to keep looking. “