LONDON (AP) – There is some evidence that a new coronavirus variant first identified in South East England carries a higher risk of death than the original strain, the UK government’s chief scientific advisor said Friday – though he stressed that the data is uncertain
Patrick Vallance told a press conference that “there is some evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant.”
He said that for a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that for 1,000 people who have become infected, about 10 people are expected to die.”
“With the new variant, it is expected that for 1,000 infected people, about 13 or 14 people could die,” he said.
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not strong yet” and that more research is needed.
Contrary to that uncertainty, he said, confidence is growing that the variant is more easily passed on than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transferable.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical leader on COVID-19, said studies were underway to investigate the transmission and severity of new virus variants.
She said so far “they have not seen an increase in severity,” but more transmission could lead to “an overloaded health care system” and thus more deaths.
Evidence that the new variant is more deadly comes in a paper by a group of scientists advising the government on new respiratory viruses., based on various studies.
The British scientists said that while initial analyzes suggested the strain, first identified in September, did not cause more serious disease, several more recent studies suggest it did. However, the number of deaths is relatively small, and death rates are affected by many things, including the care patients receive and their age and health after having COVID-19.
The British scientists emphasize that the information so far is severely limited, and they do not know how representative the cases included in the analyzes are of what is happening across the country or elsewhere.
One analysis found no increased risk of death in people hospitalized with the new strain. In another, the odds of being hospitalized with the new species compared to the previously dominant species were no different.
There has been a delay in reporting hospital admissions after infection, and a further delay from infection to death, so officials expect to learn more within weeks.
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said, “There is quite a difference in the estimated increased risk of death between the different analyzes, although most, but not all, show an increased risk of death,” said he. .
Ian Jones, Professor of Virology at the University of Reading, said, “the data is limited and the conclusions preliminary. However, an increased death rate is certainly possible with a virus that has improved its game in transmission. “
UK officials say they are confident that the vaccines approved for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists are concerned that variants identified in Brazil and South Africa could be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needs to be done.
Concerns about newly identified variants have sparked a wave of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travelers from Great Britain and the UK has halted flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said further restrictions could apply.
“Maybe we should go further to protect our borders,” he said.
In Britain, 95,981 deaths occurred among people who tested positive for the coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
The UK is currently in a lockdown in an attempt to slow down the latest wave of the coronavirus outbreak. Pubs, restaurants, nightlife and many shops are closed and people have to stay at home for the most part.
The number of new infections is on the decline, but the death rate remains excruciatingly high, averaging over 1,000 per day, and the number of hospitalized patients is 80% higher than at the first peak of the spring pandemic.
Johnson, who has often been accused of making overly optimistic predictions about the coronavirus restrictions being relaxed, sounded bleak.
“We will somehow have to live with coronavirus for a long time,” he said, adding that “it is an open question” when measures can be relaxed.
“You have to be very, very careful indeed at this stage,” he said.
Vallance agreed,
“I don’t think this virus is going anywhere,” he said. “It will probably last forever.”
___ AP Chief Medical Writer Marilynn Marchione and Medical Writer Maria Cheng contributed to this story.
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