With football officially over, it’s time for endless mock drafts, pro days, and free-agent speculation. In most mock drafts, the 49ers stay at number 12 and select a cornerback if one of the best quarterbacks doesn’t fall to them.
In The Athletic’s most recent mock draft, Dane Brugler has San Francisco swapped with the New York Jets, acquiring Sam Darnold, swapping first-rounders, while giving up a future second-round pick:
12. *** TRADE ***
New York Jets Receive:
First round choice for 2021 (No. 12 in total)
2022 second round pick
San Francisco 49ers receive:
First round choice 2021 (No. 23 in total)
Ask Sam Darnold
There is a lot of resistance to Darnold from fans of 49ers. There’s no question that Darnold will get some headaches and play with a lot more variance than Jimmy Garoppolo. With variance come converts and missed throws.
You’ll also see Darnold dodging a free rusher and keeping the Jets on track by playing with his athletics a few times per game. Plus, Darnold’s physical tools allow him to make throws that Jimmy can’t.
In the quick game, where Kyle Shanahan’s offense lives, Darnold is where he excels. It’s easy to connect the dots why Darnold would match the Niners. This isn’t just a player-for-player trade. You pay New York for a younger QB, but you also pay them for Darnold’s contract.
Again, it’s never quite as simple as “is player X better than player Z.” In this scenario, Darnold’s maximum number is less than $ 10 million for 2021. That’s as of now. After the transaction, Darnold’s cap number is approximately $ 5 million for 2021. Garoppolo’s cap number is $ 26 million. Is there a $ 21 million difference between the two players? I don’t believe it, and I doubt the Niners do either.
The Darnold acquisition would give San Francisco much-needed flexibility to continue building its roster. Maintaining a first round is critical. Giving up a future roster, which will almost certainly be in the mid-1920s, is a smart thing to do. Overall, the 49ers feature in this deal.
As for the direction the team is heading at No. 23, Brugler has the Niners select an edge rusher:
23. San Francisco 49ers (via NYJ) – Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
San Francisco was able to tackle the quarterback position without falling out of the first round completely. And with Paye still on the board, the 49ers add a player they might have considered if they stayed at number 12. While still on the job, Paye has the athleticism and energy to be as productive as the pass and the flight.
I haven’t seen Paye, but I know a lot of people in the design community are high on him. PFF’s Mike Renner told me Paye is one of the lone edge rushers in this design that he believes is worthy of a high selection.
Paye finished the season with a true pass rush score of 90.6 and a pass rush win rate of 26.5%, which is double the peer average. Paye was # 1 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks list, where he ran a sub 6.5 3 cone:
He clocked the team’s second-best three-cone time with a blistering 6.37 seconds, which would have surpassed anyone in the 2020 combine. Paye’s 40 also moves at 4.57, with a solid 34-inch vertical and 30 reps on the bench press. Paye’s 40 time and 4.15 pro shuttle time are better than any D-lineman or edge player who tested on the 2020 combine. His 11.3 time in the 60-yard shuttle is also elite.
If Paye gets a 4.5, forget that he stays in his 20s.
I’ve talked about how the 49ers need athleticism on the edge, and it would be hard to find someone more athletic than Paye. Most scouting reports will tell you that he doesn’t have a plan as a pass rusher, but if he’s already winning at a fast speed then the sky’s the limit for Paye, especially on a line of defense where Paye would get every 1-on-1. week.
So in this scenario, the 49ers give up a second round pick to Darnold while trading their first round pick with the Jets. They are supposedly trading / releasing Garoppolo to free up cap space, which in turn allows them to sign agents for free. San Francisco gets the most athletic edge rusher in the draft with the highest advantage by keeping a first-rounder.
I’ll take it.