With a week until Christmas, pretty much the entire United States is at risk.
Harvard Global Health Institute / Brown School of Public Health
It’s the season to be extremely careful if you plan on traveling for Christmas.
Public health experts had warned that Thanksgiving was going to be a superspreader event, yet millions of Americans traveled for the holiday weekend. Now, a week before Christmas, only one in the continental US is out of the “high risk” category.
Still, approximately 84.5 million Americans are expected to travel from Dec. 23 to Jan. 3, according to a report by the AAA. While that’s down by about 34 million travelers from last year, public health experts advise against travel at this point.
“The CDC continues to recommend postponing travel and staying at home as it is the best way to protect yourself and others this year,” said recent winter vacation guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The country has never been more at risk from the pandemic. Yesterday, the US set records for new cases and hospitalizations for the second day in a row, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
Here’s a rundown of the high-risk states to visit a week before Christmas, along with an overview of current Covid-19 protocols.
1) Tennessee
Risk factors: No statewide mask mandate – 128.3 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 18.1% of Covid tests are positive
As Tennessee climbs to the top of the national charts for day-to-day Covid-19 cases, front-line doctors beg Governor Bill Lee to mandate masks statewide. Currently, Tennessee recommends, but does not require, face masks or physical distance in public. Several counties – including those with Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga – have issued local mask mandates.
The Volunteer State has recorded 128.3 new Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, on a moving weekly average, according to the risk assessment tool from the Harvard Global Health Institute and the Brown School of Public Health. Any state with more than 25 new daily cases per 100,000 people is colored red on the map, meaning it is considered “at a tipping point”. Tennessee’s risk level is 413% above that threshold.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, Tennessee’s positive rate is 18.1%. The positive rate should ideally be less than 5%, according to the World Health Organization. Tennessee positivity has been on the rise for the past two consecutive weeks.
2) Rhode Island
Risk factors: Statewide mask mandate – 110.4 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 7.2% of Covid tests are positive
Little Rhode Island is currently the hotspot of the Northeast. Earlier this month, Governor Gina Raimondo expanded restrictions on businesses, including closing bars and gyms and reducing restaurant capacity to 33%. Face masks have been mandatory in Rhode Island since May.
The smallest state in the country is currently registering an average of 110.4 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people. That is 342% higher than the threshold of the “tipping point”.
Rhode Island’s positive rate is 7.2%. Positivity has been on the rise for the past two consecutive weeks.
3) Arizona
Risk factors: No statewide mask mandate – 91.5 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 14.5% of Covid tests are positive
While his state is once again a major hotspot for the spread of Covid-19, and despite mounting pressure from public health officials, Governor Doug Ducey has declined to issue a statewide mask mandate. Several cities and counties in Arizona have full mask orders, including Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe, and Tucson counties.
In the past week, Arizona registered an average of 91.5 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people. That is 266% above the “tipping point” threshold.
The state’s positive rate is 14.5%, which is nearly three times higher than what is considered safe. Positivity has been on the rise for the past two consecutive weeks.
4) Indiana
Risk factors: Statewide mask mandate – 90.2 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 12.4% of Covid tests are positive
Last week, Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb said his state was “on fire” from the coronavirus as the number of high-risk counties has more than doubled since last week. Holcomb recently renewed a statewide mask mandate and tightened restrictions on the number of crowds.
Indiana currently records an average of 90.2 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, which is 261% above the “tipping point” threshold.
Indiana’s positive rate is currently 12.4%, more than double the target. Positivity has been on the rise for the past two consecutive weeks.
5) California
Risk factors: Statewide mask mandate – 87.9 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 12.8% of Covid tests are positive
California is breaking records in both new cases and hospitalizations. The state has activated its “mass lethality” program, which coordinates mutual aid between various government agencies. Specifically, if the availability of the intensive care unit in a particular region falls below 15 percent, an order for a three-week stay is triggered. Governor Gavin Newsom’s mask mandate has been in effect since June 18.
California currently records an average of 87.9 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, which is 252% above the “tipping point” threshold.
The state’s positive rate currently stands at 12.8%. Positivity has been on the rise for the past two consecutive weeks.
6) Pennsylvania
Risk factors: Statewide mask mandate – 83.1 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 40.0% of Covid tests are positive
Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf has issued Covid-related restrictions in effect through January 4, including a ban on indoor dining in restaurants and bars and the closing of gyms and fitness centers. The state has had a universal mask mandate since the summer.
In the past week, Pennsylvania registered an average of 83.1 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, more than 232% above the ‘tipping point’ threshold.
Pennsylvania’s positive rate is 40%, eight times what is considered safe. Positivity has been on the rise for the past two consecutive weeks.
7) Utah
Risk factors: Statewide mask mandate – 82.8 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 18.1% of Covid tests are positive
The good news: The number of new daily Covid cases in Utah has dropped 18% since last month, when Governor Gary Herbert issued an emergency statement that included a statewide mask requirement. People should wear a face cover in public and when they are within three feet of someone from another household.
In the past week, Utah recorded an average of 82.8 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people. The bad news: That’s still 231% above the “tipping point” threshold.
The state’s positive rate is 18.1%, which is more than three times what is considered safe. Positivity has been on the rise for the past two consecutive weeks.
8) Delaware
Risk factors: Statewide mask mandate – 81.2 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 8.9% of Covid tests are positive
Delaware Gov. John Carney’s state of emergency mandates that face coverings be prescribed in all public settings and at private indoor gatherings where people from other households are present, regardless of their ability to maintain physical distance.
Over the past week, Delaware registered an average of 81.2 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, 225% above the “tipping point” threshold.
The state’s positive rate is 8.9%, almost double what is considered safe. Positivity has risen for the past two consecutive weeks.
9) Oklahoma
Risk factors: No statewide mask mandate – 80.5 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 20.8% of Covid tests are positive
Despite contracting Covid-19 himself last summer, Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt publicly recommends masks but has declined calls for a state mandate. A few cities, including Tulsa, have adopted mask requirements.
Oklahoma currently records an average of 80.5 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people. The number of new daily cases is 222% higher than the “tipping point” threshold.
Wyoming’s positive rate is a whopping 20.8%, four times the 5% target. Positivity has been on the rise for the past two consecutive weeks.
10) Nevada
Risk factors: Statewide mask mandate – 79.3 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 15.9% of Covid tests are positive
Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak has extended meeting restrictions and limited capacity in bars and restaurants to January 15 in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. Since June, there has been a mandatory face-covering policy for the entire state.
In the past week, Nevada recorded an average of 79.3 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, which is 217% above the ‘tipping point’ threshold.
Nevada’s positive rate is 15.9%, more than three times what is considered safe. Positivity has risen for the past two consecutive weeks.
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