Maybe not.
If the pace of the first week’s gains is sustained, Tesla stock would match all of last year’s gains in mid-March. Not that anyone predicts a 700% rise in shares this year. Or even a tenth of that.
In fact, even some of the most optimistic analysts are only predicting that Tesla stock would hit $ 1,000 by the end of the year, up about 14% for the rest of 2021 from Friday’s record high.
Several analysts with relatively positive outlook for the company have 12-month price targets well below Friday’s $ 880 close. The current average analyst target price is $ 440, representing a 50% drop in the number of shares.
Of the 35 analysts following the stock, 13 have a “strong buy” or “buy” recommendation, and another 11 have a neutral or hold recommendation. Of the rest, seven have a sell recommendation and only four have a “strong sell.”
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is one of the bullish analysts with a bearish price target. Considered one of the best car analysts on Wall Street, Jonas upgraded his Tesla recommendation to “overweight” in late November, but has done his best to keep hitting his target price ahead of the market price.
On November 18, when he upgraded the stock, he set a target price of $ 540, which was an increase of 22% from the stock’s level at the time. Last Wednesday, he pushed it up to $ 810, only to see Tesla stock blow past that point quickly too.
Rather, they are betting on Tesla’s ability to continue to grow rapidly and to meet much of the world’s growing appetite for electric vehicles or EVs. There are predictions that within 10 to 20 years, Tesla could become the world’s No. 1 car manufacturer, not just for electric cars, but for every kind of car.
Dan Ives, technical analyst at Wedbush Securities, has a base scenario target price of $ 715 for Tesla stock and a bull case target of $ 1,000. His buying advice on Tesla is based on his belief that Tesla will continue its strong run.
“I think they can hit 1 million vehicles [delivered annually] by 2022. And looking north from 3 to 4 million as we move into 2025-26, with 40% of that growth coming from China, “he said.” We believe that if you look at the next 10-15 years, you could start looking at 10-12 million cars a year, “he said. Volkswagen, the current world leader, sold 11 million cars in 2019.
That is of course all a conjecture. But what’s indisputable is that Tesla’s stock has proven that analysts are consistently wrong during the run that began 15 months ago.
It was an increase that analysts never saw coming. Their median target price in October 2019 was only about $ 50 at the time, adjusted for the split. The target price for 12 months a year ago was $ 62.
From here, Ives points to some of the most successful technology stocks in the world and says Tesla is now on par with those companies at turning points in their history.