Superinfectious mutant strain of coronavirus ‘is more likely to affect children,’ research claims

The highly contagious mutant strain of the coronavirus found in Kent may be more likely to affect children, scientists have warned.

Modelers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found that the new virus strain is 56 percent more contagious.

Even if another national lockdown were implemented, it would be “ unlikely ” to lower the R to below one unless schools and universities were also closed, their research found.

But researchers don’t believe the new species is more deadly or causes more serious illness in adults or children.

The new coronavirus strain may be ‘particularly pronounced’ in children, scientists have warned. Pictured: Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine modeled an increased sensitivity of children to the new strain (VOC) compared to the original strain (pre-existing)

Researchers said there is “some evidence that the increase is particularly noticeable in children.”

The new variant will trigger a wave of coronavirus cases and deaths that will peak in the spring of 2021 for London, the South East and East of England, they said.

They said cases and deaths will peak in the summer of 2021 for the rest of the country.

The schools were due to return on January 4, but Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has ordered a week of testing and most students will return on January 11.

SAGE expert warns new mutant Covid is likely to become the ‘dominant global strain’

The mutated coronavirus that is spreading rapidly in the UK is likely to become the dominant global strain, a SAGE scientist warned today as Gibraltar came sixth outside of Britain to detect a case of the new variant.

Calum Semple, a professor of outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool, said the new variety would ‘outperform all other strains’ because it has the evolutionary advantage of being able to spread more easily.

The strain – dubbed VUI-202012/01 – has already been confirmed in Denmark, Gibraltar, the Netherlands, Australia and Italy. There are also unverified reports of at least one case in Belgium.

France and South Africa also believe they have cases of the mutation, but these have not been confirmed. French Health Minister Olivier Veran said it is ‘very possible’ that the new variant is already circulating in France, despite tests not yet picking it up, while officials in South Africa say they have discovered a species very similar to the UK version.

Scotland and Wales have both picked up cases of the species in recent weeks, although it is mainly spreading in London and southeast England, where 60 percent of all new infections are thought to be responsible.

It is now present in all parts of the UK except Northern Ireland, but Prime Minister Arlene Foster said it is ‘likely’ that the virus is already circulating there as well.

When asked on Sky News whether the mutant coronavirus will become the dominant species around the world, Professor Semple said, ‘I suspect it will happen, or strains like it will.

‘Because the virus has the evolutionary advantage of being transmitted more quickly, it will outperform all other species, and so naturally it will.

“As immunity becomes more widespread in the community, you’re going to see more pressure on the virus and more likely to see other escapes from other variants.”

Only GCSE and A-level students, vulnerable children and the children of critical workers will return on time.

According to separate figures from the Office for National Statistics, the coronavirus is most common among high school students.

Those in year 7 to year 11 see the highest infection rates among the entire population.

Scientists hope to learn much more over the next two weeks about how quickly the variant spreads among children, said Professor Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist from Imperial College London and member of No10’s advisory group NERVTAG.

Children caused far fewer cases during the coronavirus pandemic than other respiratory illnesses, including the flu.

The leading theory for this is due to how the coronavirus enters human cells, through a receptor called ACE2 found on many cells in the upper respiratory tract.

As a result, Professor Wendy Barclay of Imperial College London and a NERVTAG member explained that this made adults ‘easy targets’ compared to children.

This is because the amount of ACE2 that a person naturally and steadily expresses increases over time, with young children having very little.

‘I think we should be careful what we say when it comes to children. We are not saying this is a virus that specifically attacks children or is more specific in its ability to infect children, ”she said.

But we know that SARS-CoV-2 as it emerged as a virus was not as efficient at infecting children as it was in adults.

The previous virus had a more difficult time binding ACE2 and getting into cells and so adults, who have abundant ACE2 in their nose and throat, were the easy targets and children were difficult to infect.

‘The newer virus does that more easily and therefore children may be just as susceptible to this virus as adults.

‘Given their mixing patterns, you would expect more children to become infected.

‘It is not because the virus specifically targets children, but that it is now less inhibited.’

Professor Ferguson added that if this hypothesis turns out to be true, it could explain a “significant portion” of the transmission increase.

During a virtual media briefing hosted by the Science Media Center, he said, “There is a hint that it has a greater propensity to infect children.

“That may explain some of the differences, but we have not established any causality.”

The new strain of the virus, which experts fear is more contagious, has prompted more than 50 countries to impose travel restrictions on the UK, where it first emerged.

But cases of the new variant have still been reported worldwide: Japan confirmed five infections to UK passengers on Friday, while cases have also been reported in Denmark, Lebanon, Germany, Australia and the Netherlands.

South Africa has discovered a similar mutation in some infected people, but on Friday denied British claims that the species was more contagious or dangerous than those from the UK.