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Chris BermanNFL Studio Host, SportsCenter Anchor, Baseball Commentator
Chris Berman is back for his Swami Sez NFL pick for Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 56) against Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Needless to say, the storylines are as juicy as they come for this 55th edition of the Super Bowl. My favorite is Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs trying to repeat as champions and join that exclusive club, and the guy who guards the castle to make sure they don’t pass through it is the last to do it, the GOAT himself, Tom Brady. , with the New England Patriots from 2003-04.
Brady is here for the 10th time – we’ll probably never see that again unless it happens to be the guy he’s playing against. This game is the past and present standard bearer against the current and possible future standard bearer of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.
If you look at the Chiefs, this is a team of unquestioned talent. In the two playoff games this year, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have combined about 40 catches and 400 yards – that’s ridiculous. On top of the talent, this is a team that enjoys playing, which comes from their head coach, Andy Reid. Sometimes they had so much fun with it this season that they took the foot off the gas and, like their previous victory over Tampa, could have won by more than 20 points, but had to kill the clock by three instead.
Until the Buffalo game, the Chiefs had not played a full 60-minute game since early November. If they can do that again, play all 60 minutes, then I think it might be too much for Tampa Bay to handle – despite the magic of the great self, Tom Brady.
Tampa Bay, with the pass-catching core of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, is one of the few teams with roughly as many headliners as the Chiefs. Add to that, you have Leonard Fournette, who ran the best he had all year against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, an extra dynamic that makes the offense feel like it might – just maybe – exchange points . with the Chiefs, which very few teams can say they can. The Bucs could.
The loss to the Chiefs over Thanksgiving weekend put the Bucs at 7-5 and went into the final bye of the season. Having an experienced team saying goodbye so late in the season was perfect, and it responded. I said it on Primetime, this will be the most important day of all 32 teams. See, Swami was right. The Bucs have not lost since then. The new parts stood out and the team put it all together. Normally, you don’t get any rest in week 13, and that has paid off. That should not be overlooked.
KC has three difference makers on the defensive: Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu. Can they put enough pressure on Brady to make him feel a little uncomfortable? I’m going to see if they do it in the first quarter, which could set the tone for the game. If Brady is comfortable, the Bucs can trade points with the Chiefs. But don’t underestimate defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, whose timing for sending a linebacker or cornerback can be perfect. He already beat Brady in a Super Bowl once. He can keep you off balance.
The Tampa Bay front seven is very good. Jason Pierre-Paul had a full year, and linebackers Devin White and Shaq Barrett take on a team without their two initial tackles. Ndamukong Suh and Lavonte David can also play big. Will the front seven of the Bucs be able to dictate the game themselves? The Chiefs must feel that if Mahomes is given some time, they can beat the secondary, as they did in the first game.
Yet another all-season observation: Just as the Doctor had ordered the Bucs’ late bye, the Chiefs also got an unexpected break. Sure, they were the preseason favorites to repeat and garner a lot of attention, but that early loss to the Las Vegas Raiders was a blessing in disguise. All talk of remaining unbeaten went to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who started 11-0. Add to that the fact that Brady is in another Super Bowl, and that’s at least as big a storyline as the Chiefs try to repeat. Anything less spotlight than expected never hurts.
In this first Super Bowl played in a conference champion’s home stadium, when the Bucs run out of the locker room in Creamsicle uniforms 30 minutes before kickoff, it’s over … Tampa wins and Tom gets his seventh ring. But they shouldn’t, even if they wanted to. Since this won’t happen, I’m going to repeat with the champions, and Andy Reid and his team will join that elite repeat group. You know them: the Packers, Dolphins, Steelers (twice), Niners, Cowboys, Broncos and Tom’s Patriots. Every decade has had at least one repeat champion – in the ’60s,’ 70s, ’80s,’ 90s and 2000. Then the Chiefs won it in 2019, so we’ll call it back-to-back in that decade too, and the trend continues.
Swami Sez: Chiefs 30, Bucs 20