It is official. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is officially on the market – the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft. While this news doesn’t set the NFL world on fire in the same way as the trade rumors surrounding (current) Houston’s Swirling 25-year-old QB Deshaun Watson, Stafford is one of the most intriguing veteran options to become available in recent seasons.
Two of the better concept analysts out there The concept network Kyle Crabbs and Joe Marino. On their The Draft Dudes podcast, Kyle and Joe discussed what a no-brainer it would be for the Denver Broncos to trade for Stafford and instead discussed what a fair price would be to get the quarterback. Here’s the crux (listen to 32: 23-35: 01).
“This is a one (first-rounder), and picks, and a player,” said Crabbs.
“A one, Drew Lock, DaeSean Hamilton, and a two (second-rounder)?” Marino asked.
“Yes,” said Crabbs. And the reason is [Stafford’s] Turns 33 this season, he’s under contract for the next two seasons, you’ll have a longer runway after that. If he continues to play well, renew him and keep him under contract. This is not just a one-year payout. Financially you will pay him 43 million dollars in two years for a man with a physical top 10 talent in this position. ‘
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The argument for Stafford-to-Denver
The proposed package to take over Stafford The Draft Dudes was a bit of a range, suggesting Denver should trade picks No. 9, 40, a 2022 second-rounder, Drew Lock and wide DaeSean Hamilton. Marino and Crabbs then compared this expected trade offer for Stafford to what Denver ordered for Jay Cutler in the infamous trade with the Chicago Bears in 2009.
The big caveat they missed, however, was that Stafford turns 33, while Cutler was just 25 years old when the Broncos took him to Chicago. Obviously, Stafford is a more well known and proven product, but the age difference is significant.
The trade that should be compared to when discussing a Stafford-to-Denver scenario was Carson Palmer’s Cincinnati-Oakland trade, which sent a first and second rounder to the Bengal in 2011.
The Ask for Stafford: A Pretty Penny
If Denver really wants to have a presence in the Stafford trading market, there’s no question that the Broncos must be willing to part with the No. 9 overall pick. Some might say this is too high a price, but that’s just the reality of the situation for a quarterback like Stafford, given his talent, playing years and contract.
Aside from that first-rounder, this year is probably a day 2 pick and a starting talent. While the ‘Draft Dudes’ suggested Hamilton, I would think Tim Patrick would be a more interesting trading token given the barren wasteland that is the Lions’ wide reception room entering this low season.
Rumor has it that with the capital the Lions will eventually receive for Stafford, the team will try to pack the trade and make the No. 7 overall pick aggressive and advance in front of a quarterback. While Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will be off the table, no doubt one of BYU’s Zach Wilson, North Dakota STate’s Trey Lance or Ohio State’s Justin Fields will be within reach.
These rumors suggest that in the eyes of the Lions, adding Lock to a future trading package might be nothing more than throwing away a lottery ticket. Upside down? Sure, but not in the same realm as the perceived benefit of the best QB outlook in this concept class.
Allure of Stafford’s attributes
At the age of 33, Stafford is by no means a spring chick, but he still has 3-8 years of good game in the tank. He is currently in the top-8-to-12 most talented QB’s range in the NFL.
While the ‘QBWinz’ audience will point to the Lions’ win / loss record throughout his career, the nuanced view of Stafford’s tenure should include an understanding of his Detroit circumstances. Whether it’s Detroit’s incredible array of absolutely gruesome defenses or the lack of a running game to dictate defenders in the box, there is no doubt that the Lions have historically done a gruesome job around Stafford with a skillful roster year after year. Perhaps it is not surprising for a team that has squandered people like Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson, but I digress.
The final question
The Broncos are continuously associated with quarterbacks during the early stages of this off-season, probably largely because of the NFL’s general perception of Lock. With a bottom 5 rankings in many key categories, consecutive seasons of time-consuming injuries, and with only two years of contractual control over the former roster in the second round, Denver is by no means ‘married’ to lockdown.
Those close to the situation may be clamoring for patience and more time, denouncing the circumstances surrounding the Lock situation as “not fair,” but simply put, the competition is not fair. You overcome adversity or fade in the annals of time.
Those are the breaks in the NFL. It will never be fair. Fair or not, Lock hasn’t done enough to make one indisputable starting place for the Broncos in 2021. As the kids say, “those are the breaks.”
Paton would be remiss not to call Detroit
Whether or not Denver’s new GM George Paton should call on Stafford is beyond question. Stafford would be an upgrade to the quarterback position, giving the Broncos a top-12 signal caller surrounded by an insane level of talent, though young, on the offensive side of the ball. However, the main questions to ask are: what will the cost be? And are those costs worth it?
It would take some kind of bias (if not cognitive dissonance) to suggest that Paton should not answer the phone and make a call to check the cost of acquiring Stafford. It remains to be seen if Paton will be willing to part with a fair amount of design capital in a market full of teams absolutely desperate for a quarterback this year, such as the San Francisco 49ers, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Football Team and New England. Patriots.
It all comes down to what the Broncos think of Stafford, the current squad, Lock, and what gives this team the best chance of competing in the offensive juggernaut that has become the AFC West.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @BuienRadarNL.