Public records show that SpaceX has plans to shut down and launch its latest Starship prototype within a two-day period, which could begin later in the day.
SpaceX shipped Starship SN11 from its missile factory in Boca Chica, Texas to test and launch facilities a mile away on March 8, less than five days after Starship SN11 exploded 10 minutes after landing. The next day, SpaceX completed the ambient temperature test and filled Starship with benign nitrogen gas to check for leaks and verify the health of the system. Two days later, Starship SN11 appeared to complete a cryogenic test lasting several hours – exchanging nitrogen gas for its supercooled liquid form – with no problems.
Despite the seemingly successful ‘cryo-proof’, something prevented another static fire test scheduled for March 12 before an attempt could be made, delaying the next attempt until after the approaching weekend. An agreement between SpaceX, Cameron County, and the state of Texas currently prevents road closures (and thus missile tests) on weekends between Labor Day and Memorial Day, rules designed to maintain some degree of public access to Boca Chica Beach.
As a result, unless SpaceX is already ready to launch (it has waivers for three such weekend closings for launch attempts), the company will have to wait until Monday, even if a minor issue could be within hours or a day or so be resolved, thwarted Friday’s test plans. While uncomfortable, it’s worth noting that the existence of that public beach and the strict rules protecting the public domain is probably one of the few reasons the general public can still get as close as possible to SpaceX’s Boca Chica ‘Starbase’.
For whatever reason, that road closure agreement still means SpaceX can (in theory) test and launch any day of the week from May 31 to September 6, with the exception of a few holidays, effectively increasing the number of opportunities by 40. % for those 14 weeks. Until then, SpaceX will do everything it can to make the most of the five days a week is are allowed to test prototypes of Starship. N.
Notably, although Starships SN8 and SN9 both had technical and regulatory issues for a few weeks while preparing for their high-altitude launch attempts, SpaceX has gradually accelerated that process over time. Starship SN10, the first prototype of its kind to land in one piece, took just 33 days to go from path arrival to launch, spending just 8 days between its initial static fire and launch attempts. The same performance took Starship SN8 77 and 50 days, respectively, with SN9 dividing the difference into 43 days from transport to launch and 28 days between its initial static fire and launch attempts.
Requests for road closure, a resident safety warning, and a temporary flight restriction (TFR) filed with the FAA all suggest SpaceX’s current plan is to attempt Starship SN11’s first triple-Raptor static fire between 6 a.m. and noon CDT on Monday March 15. If that test goes near perfect, SpaceX plans to orbit the rocket for a 10km launch attempt on Tuesday, March 16 – the next day. Given the past performance of high-altitude spacecraft prototypes, that goal is certainly ambitious and is likely to suffer delays, but it still reveals the true scope of SpaceX’s goals, even at this early stage of development.
If Starship manages to launch SN11 within days of its first static firing attempt, SpaceX would still smash SN10’s 33-day record by a factor of three. Stay tuned for updates on Monday’s possible static fire from Monday’s spaceship and its quick turnaround attempt on Tuesday