Elon Musk wants to save taxpayers tens of billions of dollars by launching rockets cheaper.
He has been working on the problem for the past few years. First he played around with a “Grasshopper” rocket to see if it would be possible to launch part of a rocket and then safely re-pilot it. SpaceX then scaled Grasshopper into the reusable Falcon 9 rockets that have become a mainstay for space launch, some on dry ground and others at sea. Next came the invention of recoverable and reusable space capsules, and finally boats equipped with giant nets to catch falling rocket fairings before they fall into the sea.
Step by step, Musk has learned to reclaim most of the value of every rocket launched, saving money by not having to rebuild more and more parts, and instead using them over and over again.
But he is not ready yet. Now he is building a missile 100% reusable. And it is almost ready for prime time.
Image source: Elon Musk.
The first and last flight of Starship SN9
On Tuesday, February 2, SpaceX conducted its second-ever high-altitude flight test for a new 100% reusable rocket – the StarshipOver the course of 6 minutes and 26 thrilling seconds, Starship model “SN9” flew 10 kilometers into the air, turned sideways, fell back 10 kilometers, turned again to attempt a vertical landing – and failed hold the landing.
SN9 descended too quickly and hit more diagonally than vertically and exploded in a fireball on impact. In so doing, it duplicated the fate of its predecessor prototype, the SN8, which had actually come closer to landing successfully during its test flight on December 9.
Why has the SN9 failed? How did it actually seem to perform worse than the SN8? See for yourself:
Live feed from Starship SN9 flight test → https://t.co/Hs5C53qBxb https://t.co/ioM0D5J91I
– SpaceX (@SpaceX) February 2, 2021
For starters, the SN9’s engines waited three seconds longer to re-ignite for its landing fire last week than the SN8 did two months ago. To make matters worse, SpaceX says, “a Raptor engine was not re-ignited at all, causing SN9 to land at high speed” (and misplaced).
If you fail at first (and second), will you give up?
Basically, SpaceX modified the landing process for the SN9, but a mechanical issue prevented this new approach from working – this time. The good news is that SpaceX already has “a clear solution” to the problem (three engines in the landing burn instead of two).
That said, the burn on the ship has a definite solution. My main concern is to achieve a good payload for a job with fast and full reusability, without which we will be confined to Earth forever.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 5, 2021
It was stupid of us not to start 3 engines and turn 1 off immediately as it takes 2 to land
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 4, 2021
Within hours of the SN9 being blown up, SpaceX has already figured out how to do better next time. And there will certainly be another time – maybe sooner than you think.
Consider: The SN8 made its test flight on December 9, 2020. Less than two months later, SpaceX was ready to try again with the SN9. And in the photo above, you may have noticed that SpaceX already has a third Starship rocket lined up her turn to try – the SN10. (And an SN11 is currently under construction.)
What happens now?
In total, SpaceX expects to be able to run through as many as 20 SN prototypes in rapid succession before eventually equipping one with a full complement of six Raptor engines (these test versions only use three) and sending it into orbit. So even with the SN9 in shreds, it means the company is almost halfway through testing.
With the pace of test launches accelerating, it seems likely that we could see a spaceship in orbit before the end of this year.
What happens then?
At that point, SpaceX will be the only company on Earth to have a fully repairable, fully reusable space rocket – and not only that, but also the largest space rocket in the world, capable of putting more than 100 tons of cargo into orbit.
I don’t think it’s exaggerating to say that once this happens, the world will change.
Suddenly, SpaceX will own a rocket that, once built, requires little more than refueling before it can be reused over and over again, dropping the cost of launching into space toward the cost of filling the tank. Almost everyone tries compete with SpaceX – and that’s what I’m thinking about Boeing and Lockheed Martin and their joint venture United Launch Alliance here – will still use more expensive replaceable missiles. Either that, or they’ll race to catch up with SpaceX, like Arianespace in Europe, Linkspace in China, and Roscosmos in Russia do.
And even those rockets will be a generation behind SpaceX, as they are only partially reusable (similar to the Falcon 9).
Meanwhile, as its competitors catch up with the latest generation of reusable rockets, SpaceX can begin phasing out its own Falcon 9s and Falcon Heavies – and the landing ships, fairing catchers, and all the other infrastructure needed to get the rocket parts back piece by piece. The overheads will fall, the costs of doing business, and SpaceX will be able to underpriced any company it competes with and dominate the space industry for years to come.
Game, set and match: SpaceX.