South Korea’s population is declining for the first time, probably exacerbated by Covid-19

The largest population decline is the low birth rate in South Korea. Since 2016, the number of births has fallen to an all-time low every year. 200 countries.

Statistics Korea, the statistical arm of South Korea, initially predicted that the country’s population would decline in 2021 after accounting for other population-changing factors, such as immigration.

But the pandemic, which hammered jobs and forced couples to postpone marriages, is likely to have weighed on birth rates, especially in South Korea, where the majority of post-marriage births occur, said Choi Seong-soo, a sociology professor. from Yonsei University in Seoul.

“It is too early to see these factors now affecting birth rates,” said Mr. Choi. “But we expect the effects to reach 2021 and 2022.”

A Bank of Korea report published in December said the Covid-19 shock could have a permanent impact on the country’s birth rates as the fertility delays turn into permanent decisions to renounce it. having children.

According to the Ministry of the Interior and Security, South Korea recorded 275,815 births and 307,764 deaths in 2020. The country, which has kept outbreaks relatively stable, has reported 981 deaths related to Covid-19.

With fewer newborns, South Korea is expected to have the world’s largest share of people over 65 by 2045, according to Korea statistics, overtaking Japan, currently one of the oldest countries in the world.

Japan has cleared kindergartens and urged companies to let workers leave on time. But after a mild rebound over the past decade, the country’s birth rate has fallen over the past four years.

South Korea’s aging population is expected to stunt the country’s growth as the population of working age declines. A study estimates that South Korea’s potential manufacturing capacity will decline by about one percentage point from 2024 as a result of demographic changes.

The pandemic has made it clear that South Korea is increasingly dependent on low-income immigrants, especially in agriculture and basic manufacturing sectors, after air travel halts abruptly closed its doors to many temporary workers. Policy makers have begun to investigate immigration as a response to changing population dynamics, with a focus on bringing skilled foreign workers into the country.

Government officials estimate that immigrants and temporary foreign residents will make up 6.9% of the total population by 2040, up from 4.3% last year.

The government has invested tens of billions of dollars to increase the nation’s ailing birth rate, which has been a priority policy for many South Korean leaders, including President Moon Jae-in.

In some smaller, rural cities outside of the Seoul metropolitan area, local governments have distributed cash to households with multiple children. One city is considering providing families with three or more children a housing allowance of about $ 47,000. The country’s competitive housing lottery for buying new apartment buildings – a points-based random draw system – is heavily skewed to help households with more children.

The efforts have not led to much change. Meanwhile, many young women have been put off by the government’s diagnosis that their birth rates are declining. In 2017, a study by a government-affiliated research firm found that women’s high academic and career achievements were the cause of declining birth rates.

While South Korea’s aging crisis is not unique, demographers say the pace is unprecedented. About 14% of South Koreans are currently elderly. That’s below the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development average, according to the group’s most recent 2018 data, about half the Japanese level and below 20% seen in parts of Europe.

But in two decades, the elderly in South Korea will make up more than 40% of the total population, said Lee Sam-sik, director of the Institute of Aging Society at Hanyang University in Seoul.

“That’s a huge leap in the elderly population in a very short period of time,” said Mr. Lee.

—Peter Landers in Tokyo contributed to this article.

Write to Eun-Young Jeong at [email protected]