SHORT TERM FORECAST
TODAY: Cloudy with periods of light snow arriving this morning, gradually blending with and turning into sleet and sleet. A layer of up to an inch of snow and a glaze of ice for most; 1-3 ”snow in the Poconos. High: 32
TONIGHT: A little snow, ice or rain that gradually narrows to drizzle or freezing drizzle. Low: 30
WEDNESDAY: A persistent flurry in spots in the morning; otherwise milder with clouds breaking for some sunshine. High: 41 Low: 25
SUMMARY FORECASTS
After a stormy, cold but dry weekend, we finally got a break from the biting and strong breeze on Monday. But in return, the sunshine gave way to increasing clouds as the day went on, ahead of our next weathermaker.
And yes, a storm system we talked about since last week is still on track to hit us today with a round of winter weather. But no, a major winter storm is not expected. In fact, it is more of a nuisance with a round of light snow than an occasional light mix of sleet, sleet and rain.
Only small accumulations of snow and ice are expected, but remember it doesn’t take much, especially when it comes to ice, to create a localized slippery journey.
Once this weakening and rather disorganized system disappears, we will have mostly dry weather for the rest of the week. A briefly milder Wednesday will give way to another recording of noticeably colder and windier weather later this week. While a fairly strong coastal storm will organize midweek east of the Carolinas, it should remain safe at sea, well to the south and east. Our next winter weather opportunity would come late on the weekend or early next week with the next storm in the pipeline, although of course the track and strength remain uncertain at this point.
DETAILED FORECAST
TODAY
Our disorganized storm will spread moisture across the region today, in the form of a light mix of snow, sleet and sleet.
A few areas saw some snowflakes later Tuesday morning, but many areas only saw sleet and sleet. Temperatures fluctuate around freezing during the day. South of Interstate 78, by noon, precipitation turns to pure rain and stays that way for the rest of the day.
Precipitation should be light and intermittent, but an inch of snow and ice of 0.10 inches or less (sleet) is possible throughout the area, with maybe a few inches of snow in the higher parts of the Poconos and in far northwest New Jersey.
The light amounts of snow shouldn’t be that problematic, but it only takes a little sleet and a light glaze of ice to cause problems, so watch out for some slippery travel, especially in areas where black ice is dominant.
TONIGHT
Our light winter mix will gradually diminish later in the evening, but stagnant layer of moisture left behind will help develop drizzle or freezing drizzle. This will likely continue for a while.
We will have to keep looking for some slippery spots, although all main roads and certainly everything that has been covered should be in order. Nighttime lows only drop to about 30 degrees.
WEDNESDAY
This will be the best day of the week, both in terms of temperature and weather. Expect a one-day warm-up in the low 40s like clouds and perhaps a sustained gust or two early to make way for some milder sunshine. While there will be a bit of a northerly breeze behind our departing storm, it shouldn’t be too exaggerated, no worse than 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY
A strong ocean storm will develop far off the Mid-Atlantic coast, too far to provide us with snow. However, it will help drag a blast of arctic air down as it leaves. While the core of the cold will settle into New England, we will certainly feel the chill too, with a gusty north to northwest breeze delivering the chilly air Thursday through Friday, with the cold linger in Saturday too , but with lighter winds.
Expect the highs on Thursday to be in the low 30s only, with even a rare (for this winter) few days when the highs on Friday and Saturday are stuck in the mid-twentieth century with colder chills. Nightly lows will drop deep into the teens each night. Weather-wise, expect a lot of cloud on Thursday and then increasing sunshine despite the cold Friday and Saturday.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY
The cold will diminish late on the weekend and early next week, as our next window for some winters will come our way. At first glance, the setup looks favorable with a cold high pressure in our north over Canada and a storm passing our south and possibly reorganizing off the coast. But we learned this winter that things have to come together perfectly before a bigger storm, because the pieces can always stay separate and miss us if the timing isn’t right.
In the long run, there’s at least something to look at, but whether it will work out remains to be seen.
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