However, anecdotes like Geismann’s are not easy to interpret. Perhaps Schuchart and similar companies had found another way to make ends meet, or they had quickly re-employed once construction projects resumed.
Economists have tried to answer that question with data. Mr. Autor compared companies with just under 500 employees – who could qualify for the original version of the program – with companies just above that size, which couldn’t. If the loans had been of great help, the smaller companies would have had to keep much more of their employees. Instead, Mr. Autor found little difference between the two groups.
But some economists argue that such research underestimates the impact of the program because it does not focus on the smallest companies, which are less likely to have large cash reserves or other financing.
A paper, based on a survey of businesses in Oakland, California, found that those who received PPP loans were 20.5 percent more likely to say they expected to survive six months, but that the relatively greater optimism was limited to businesses with less than five employees.
Robert Bartlett, one of the authors of the Oakland study, said economists like Mr. Autor may be right that PPP has saved fewer jobs than hoped. “But for these small businesses, I think it helped them keep their doors open,” he said. “I’m convinced of that.” Many of those businesses, he noted, are in poor neighborhoods or owned by racial or ethnic minorities.
Daniel G. Guerra Jr. founded AltusLearn in 2013, which provides training and compliance courses for medical personnel. Last year, the Madison, Wisconsin-based company had six employees and was on track for a year of significant growth.
Instead, when the pandemic started, medical centers discontinued virtually all non-emergency care and discontinued training.