Secret Roadmap for Peace Between India and Pakistan, brokered by Top UAE Royals

Photographer: Aamir Qureshi / AFP / Getty Images

About 24 hours after military chiefs from India and Pakistan surprised the world last month with a rare joint pledge to honor a 2003 ceasefire, the UAE’s top diplomat came to New Delhi for a quick one-day visit. .

The official UAE The reading of the February 26 meeting gave little indication of what Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed spoke about with Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, noting that they “discussed and exchanged views on all regional and international issues of common interest.

But behind closed doors, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan marked a milestone in the secret talks begun by the UAE months earlier, according to officials who were aware of the situation and asked not to be identified. The ceasefire, said one, is just the beginning of a bigger one roadmap to forge a lasting peace between the neighbors, who both have nuclear weapons and spar regularly over a decades-old territorial dispute.

The next step in the process, the official said, will involve both sides reinstating the envoys in New Delhi and Islamabad, who were withdrawn in 2019 after Pakistan protested India’s attempt to revoke seven decades of autonomy for the disputed state. Jammu and Kashmir with a Muslim majority. Then comes the hard part: talks to resume trade and a lasting resolution on Kashmir, the subject of three wars since India and Pakistan gained independence from Britain in 1947.

Over the years, India and Pakistan have routinely made peace moves to make them fail quickly, especially as both sides often use the issue to stir up emotions around elections. Officials said expectations were low that the current detente would go well beyond the return of envoys and resumption of trade through their land border in Punjab.

But this process appears to be the most coordinated effort in years, and comes as the Biden administration seeks broader peace talks on Afghanistan – a place where both countries have struggled for influence for years. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to support growth and focus military resources on the border with China, while Pakistani leaders also face economic woes and want to make a good impression on the US and other powers.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry did not comment on the talks or the role of the UAE, while the Foreign Ministries of India and UAE did not immediately comment.

Last week Pakistani Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa asked India to “bury the past and move on,” saying the military was ready to engage in talks to resolve “all of our outstanding issues.” The comments came a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan called for a resolution on Kashmir, which he described as “the only issue holding us back”.

On Saturday, Modi sent a tweet wishing Khan the best after being diagnosed with Covid-19 – another sign that relations between the countries are heating up.

The UAE, which has historic trade and diplomatic ties with India and Pakistan, has taken on a more assertive international role under de facto ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The biggest shift took place in the Middle East, where the Arab Gulf state intervened in conflict and supported groups and regional leaders. But it has also looked to Asia as it strengthens political alliances beyond its role as a global trade and logistics hub.

Ties between India and Pakistan were effectively severed two years ago after a suicide bombing in Indian-controlled Kashmir killed 40 Indian soldiers, prompting Modi’s government to allow air strikes on alleged terror facilities in Pakistan. The Joint statement last month said the two sides “had agreed to address each other’s core issues,” signaling a broader discussion of Kashmir and terrorism.

Several clues from recent months pointed to the UAE’s role. In November, Jaishankar met bin Zayed and the Crown Prince on a two-day visit to Abu Dhabi, followed by Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi the following month. About two weeks before the announcement of February 25, the UAE Secretary of State held a telephone conversation with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan “in which they discussed regional and international issues of importance”. And a few days earlier, India allowed Khan’s plane to fly over Indian airspace while en route to Sri Lanka for a state visit – a practice that has been suspended since the 2019 hostilities.

After the ceasefire, the UAE was one of the few countries to adopt a statement welcoming the announcement of the ceasefire, highlighting the “close historical ties” it has with both India and Pakistan and praising “the efforts both countries have made to reach this agreement. ” In Washington, State Department spokesman Ned Price dodged a question about the role the US played in bringing the two sides together, while urging Pakistan to play a constructive role in Afghanistan, Kashmir and other places.

“It is clear that Pakistan has an important role to play when it comes to Afghanistan and what’s going on across the other border,” Price said on Feb. 25. “So it is clear that we are paying close attention.”

– With help from Sylvia Westall and Faseeh Mangi