Saudi Arabia is bracing for a tougher relationship with incoming Biden government after four years in which President Trump
Donald Trump Trump hotel in DC raises room rates for inauguration Biden GOP lawmaker criticizes Trump colleagues for ‘discrediting’ election Video shows long lines on last day of early Georgia vote MORE gave it a direct line with the Oval Office and provided support, even when some of its policies and actions sparked controversy and bipartisan disdain.
The relationship between Trump and Saudi Arabia has been a constant source of tension between the White House and many Republicans in Congress, who have been irritated by the Kingdom’s involvement in the assassination of US-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and its unbridled support. from the White House to the Saudi war effort in Yemen. These actions also received severe criticism from the Democrats.
Elected president Joe Biden
Joe BidenBidens honors frontline workers in NYE’s address: ‘We owe them, we owe them, we owe them’ Trump hotel in DC raises room rates for inauguration Biden Video shows long lines on last day of early vote in Georgia MORE has called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” and pledged a strong hand in relations with the country, especially by confronting Riyadh about his human rights violations.
The Trump years were, in some ways, a golden era for the Saudis, as the GOP government sharply turned the US in the direction of Riyadh by pulling the US out of the nuclear deal with Iran. The government’s aggressive anti-Iranian policies also led to a military strike that killed the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Saudi Arabia, which saw the Obama administration’s negotiations with Tehran as an unwanted overture, expects a more strained relationship with Biden’s team. It is already working to calm the choppy waters between Washington and Riyadh, with the anticipated release of a prominent women’s rights activist and a possible rapprochement with the Qatar blockade, which is home to one of the US Central Command headquarters in Al Udeid Air . Base.
“They have no friends here,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who has advised both Republican and Democratic governments on US policy in the Middle East. “Congress is hostile, the Trump administration is underway, the Biden administration has made clear its positions.”
Saudi Arabia is expected to release prominent women’s rights activist Loujain al-Haltoul in March.
Al-Haltoul was arrested in 2018 on terrorism charges and was sentenced to nearly six years in prison on Monday on charges of human rights groups as politically motivated. But the terms of her sentence leave open the possibility of parole.
“I don’t think this is a coincidence,” Hussain Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said of the verdict.
Biden’s new National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan
Jake Sullivan Biden frustration grows over lack of Trump cooperation on transition Incoming National Security Advisor: Pentagon has not allowed meeting with Biden transition team since December 18 Saudi conviction of women activist sets Riyadh up for clash with Biden MORE tweeted that the verdict was “unfair and disturbing” and that “the Biden-Harris administration will oppose human rights abuses wherever they occur.”
Saudi Arabia also appears to be taking steps to resolve Qatar’s four-year blockade that arose as a result of Riyadh’s frustration over Doha’s relations with Tehran.
Saudi King Salman reportedly invited Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to attend the Jan. 5 meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council on Wednesday in what was seen as an attempt to resolve the dispute.
“I think that’s something that would really appeal to the Biden administration,” Ibish said. “I don’t think they want to inherit the Qatar boycott.”
The Saudis are skeptical that the Biden administration will be Obama 2.0, with many of the same faces from the previous Democratic administration returning to different roles.
This includes Sullivan, who was the lead negotiator in the first talks leading up to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and Antony Blink
Meet Biden’s Choice To Lead The US Intelligence Community Mnuchin Says He Spoke With Biden Treasury Nominee Yellen Next Steps For Foreign Policy MORE, Biden’s candidate for Secretary of State. Blinken was Biden’s National Security Advisor when he was Vice President and Deputy Secretary of State between 2015 and 2017.
Blinken, in particular, is considered part of a younger generation of foreign policy advisers who have served in the Obama administration and supported former President Obama in the drive for democratic change in the Middle East.
And while Biden has said he will “rethink” America’s relationship with Saudi Arabia, he has indicated that he is looking more towards rebalancing the world stage than a revolutionary policy change.
The Biden transition team said it was not in a place to comment on what the president-elect said on the campaign trail and pointed to his previous comments on the US-Saudi relationship.
Biden made a statement in October on the second anniversary of Khashoggi’s assassination, saying that the Biden-Harris administration would reassess US relations with Saudi Arabia and Washington’s support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen. He also expressed support for Saudi activists, dissidents and journalists, saying the US will not “check their values at the door to sell weapons or buy oil”.
Tamara Cofman Wittes, senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, said reassessment is needed to counteract the culture of impunity that operated in Saudi Arabia under Trump’s administration while reflecting a changed world.
“The changes in global energy markets mean that Saudi Arabia’s role in global oil prices is not as dominant as it once was,” she said. “The Middle East is generally less central to America’s global strategy.”
“But you can’t take relationships for granted in general and I think that’s true here,” she added.
This includes reports from the Saudi government attempting to kidnap one of its critics into US soil and FBI reviews that the Kingdom is using its diplomatic facilities to help Saudi citizens escape prosecution from US courts. In November 2019, two former Twitter employees and a Saudi citizen were charged by the Justice Department for acting as illegal agents of a foreign government.
“This desire for reassessment may be driven by some of the very troubling Saudi behavior we’ve seen in recent years, but it’s also driven by these trends that really can’t be ignored,” said Wittes, who served as a deputy. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs in the Obama Administration.
Riyadh has a major bargaining chip with the Biden administration on whether or not to open relations with Israel, after the Trump administration established diplomatic ties between Jerusalem and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.
While Saudi Arabia maintains quiet security ties with Israel vis-à-vis Iran, and has taken small steps to soften relations – such as opening up its airspace to Israeli commercial flights – it has so far not opened full ties on Saudi King Salman’s commitment to the Palestinians.
“If and when – I suspect it’s a matter of when – the Saudis decide to take another step towards normalization with Israel, they will see … this as a way to strengthen their very low relationship with what they expect an upcoming Biden government to be., ”said Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia is viewed as a fraught but necessary alliance based on shared goals over shared values, Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute said.
This includes requiring the US to have relations with Saudi Arabia as part of broader alliances to counter China’s global ambitions, destabilizing Russia’s activities, and maintaining stability in the Middle East.
Riyadh needs the security that the US as a world power provides to ensure its own national integrity.
“For the US it really is world politics at the highest level,” said Ibish. “The two countries are stuck together.”