Russian President Putin stands off the nation as Navalny protests ahead

Russian President Vladimir Putin will address the nation on Wednesday in his annual “State of the Nation” speech, a speech that will take place while the country is in the news for all the wrong reasons.

In the past week, there have been more reports of Russian troops gathering on the border with Ukraine, possibly preparing for military action.

And Putin critic Alexei Navalny, on a hunger strike in a Russian prison, has fallen dangerously ill and has been transferred to a prison hospital. The news sparked warnings from the US that there would be “consequences” if Russia allowed Navalny to die in prison.

In addition, Russia is accused of orchestrating an attack on a Czech weapon dump in 2014, with the Czech Republic expelling 18 Russian diplomats this week. Russia has denied that two of its military intelligence agents – the same men who allegedly carried out a nerve gas attack on a former spy in Britain in 2018 – carried out the Czech attack, but the news nevertheless contributed to the negative news flow around the country.

Last week, the US imposed more sanctions on Russia over interference in the 2020 elections, a cyber attack on the US government and corporate networks, the annexation and occupation of Ukrainian Crimea, and human rights violations.

Whether Putin will discuss such recent events in his annual speech on Wednesday is uncertain. Although, as Daragh McDowell, chief of Europe and chief Russia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft pointed out on Tuesday, the speech has often been “the setting for major policy announcements.”

The address usually covers a wide variety of topics from economics and defense to education and family life. The coronavirus pandemic will no doubt also be on the agenda, with the virus hitting the country hard over the past year.

Russia’s plans for foreign policy and geopolitical relations will no doubt be closely watched by experts, especially when it comes to neighboring Ukraine.

Russia’s close onlookers are particularly baffled by reports that the country has gathered troops on the border with Ukraine, with the chief of EU foreign affairs on Tuesday estimated the size of the deployment at 100,000 troops.

“Last week, military analysts played down the magnitude of the Russian stake, but it looks pretty sizeable now,” Timothy Ash, a senior emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, said in a note on Tuesday.

“(You must) ask yourself why Putin feels the need to put such a great force ‘in the theater’, as it goes far beyond saber rattle. The stakes are greater than in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Donbas – let’s not forget that. Why bother unless something really serious is planned? ”he asked.

Ash wondered what Putin’s strategic goals might be in Ukraine, a country with which Russia has had very tense relations since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Is that securing water supplies for Crimea, (a) a land bridge to Crimea, or giving Ukrainian forces such a beating that the Kiev government is suing for a peace that will give Russia lasting strategic dominance over Ukraine? ”Asked Ash.

The 44-year-old activist Navalny was transferred to a prison hospital this weekend after his health deteriorated during a hunger strike he organized to protest his treatment in prison. He has said he has been denied urgent medical treatment, a claim that is being rejected by the Russian authorities.

Navalny is in prison after a Russian court sentenced him to more than two years in prison in February for parole violations, according to him on politically motivated charges.

Over the weekend, his doctor warned that Navalny was at risk of a heart attack or kidney failure. The doctors had not been able to visit Navalny in prison, but said that medical tests from Navalny’s family showed that he was dangerously ill and “could die at any moment”.

The US government has warned the Russian government not to let Navalny die in custody, adding that there will be “consequences.”

Read more: US worried about the imprisoned Kremlin, criticizing Navalny’s deteriorating health

The Navalny team on Wednesday called for mass protests, an action likely to lead to clashes between protesters and police.

Verisk Maplecroft’s McDowell noted that tensions between Russia and the West have been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year, driven by both the more confrontational policies of the Biden administration and the return of Navalny.

“Navalny’s imprisonment, and the rapid deterioration of his health, have both strengthened Russia’s domestic opposition and become an international PR headache for the Kremlin, with European governments under pressure to take a tougher stance toward Moscow” , he said.