Every day, the Arctic continues to slip in an unstable state. The final sign: a Russian ship with icebreaker and liquefied natural gas first crossed the Northern Sea Route in February due to the exceptionally low and weak sea ice cover.
The new North Pole is separate from the past, and that of the ship trip is a huge red flag for what the future might hold for the region as countries race headlong into the region and plant their flags over the vast resources it holds.
The tanker, Christophe de Margerie, crossed the Arctic on a route that went from a port for liquefied natural gas on the Yamal Peninsula in western Siberia to Jiangsu, China, the province north of Shanghai. The trip covered six Arctic seas, four of which helped with navigation with the icebreaker, 50 Please leave PobedyOn February 19, both ships safely reached the Sabetta terminal, marking the end of the journey.
Rosatom, a Russian state-owned nuclear power company that owns the nuclear-powered icebreaker, released a video last week describing the two ships’ journey across the Arctic to music that wouldn’t be out of place as a scene in the Avengers where all superheroes come together. In a press release Sovcomflot, the Russian shipping company that owns the gas tanker, gave an equally cheerful assessment of the passage.
“As a result of the early journey along the Northern Sea Route, completed by Christophe de Margerie in May 2020, as well as the current trip to the Northern Sea Route, navigation in the eastern part of the Arctic was practically doubled, ”said Igor Tonkovidov, CEO of Sovcomflot.
While the Russian companies may be excited about their changing fortunes, this is bad news for the planet for several reasons. T.he new route across the North Pole is possible due to rapidly rising temperatures. In the region through which the ships sailed, the old sea ice has become practically nothing. Older, thick ice is usually more resistant warmer ocean and air temperatures. Without this, a younger icepack is more prone to breakingup and even when intact, it tends to be more brittle. The journey across the North Pole is a shocking sign of that new reality.
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Ice loss increased last year, with sea ice that the second lowest degree ever recordedThe decline in the seas north of Siberia was particularly acute due to the summer heat wave that caused the temperature spiraling above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius) and caused the Yamal Peninsula tundra to explodeThe heat also boiled sea ice, and the fact that this winter’s ice bag is passable is the end result. Indeed, Siberian icepack not on schedule last fall.
But this is not just any one one-time event. Rosatom noted in the video that freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route is expected to more than triple to 80 million tons per year. Meanwhile, Sovcomflot is pleased to receive 18 “new generation” icebreaking liquefied natural gas tankers between 2023 and 2025 for an Arctic gas project capable of producing 20 million tons per year.
Oil and gas companies have been waiting for the ability to extract fossil fuels from the Arctic for decadesClimate journalist Amy Westervelt documented in one series of tweets how US companies have applied for patents for purpose-built equipment for access to and extraction of oil and gas the North Pole as early as the 1970s, a time when they was aware of the effects of climate change, but raised public doubts about its causes. Drilling in the Arctic has been a business opportunity for decades, fueled by the companies that have done so can take advantage of it now as we lock up suffering and misery around the world. A report released last month from the Center for Climate and Security notes that Russia’s plan for the Yamal Peninsula and other parts of the Russian Arctic makes it “a gas production and export zone, similar to Qatar and the US,” which essentially a climate game would be about.
In addition to the risks to the climate, more Arctic activity also increases the risk of both geopolitical and environmental crises. The Biden administration announced it was treating climate change as a national security issue, and the Arctic could be ground zero in many ways, being both the fastest-changing part of the world and the one where countries are already seeking resources. Russia Canada and Denmark have everything claimed the North Pole as their own, for example. Thirteen are non-Arctic countries observers from the Arctic Council, including emerging powers such as China and India. There is great interest in the region from both businesses and governments, and it is almost certainly not out of the goodness of their hearts. Last month’s Center for Climate and Security report found that even if the world continues to warm within the scope of the Paris Agreement, it could still create “wider international security risks with very uncertain consequences,” whether through deliberate aggression or misunderstanding since more commercial traffic increases the potential for conflict.
At the same time, more commercial activity also increases the risk of ecological disasters. While the North Pole is more accessible, that doesn’t mean it’s exactly easy to clean up crew there should an oil spill or other type of accident happen. The BP Deepwater Horizon disaster, a spill that occurred in the relatively accessible Gulf of Mexico, is still affecting the region 10 years after the factThe Arctic is a vulnerable place with more to lose if a spill occurs. Even if there is no leakage, icebreakers can still have a adverse effects about wildlife in the region.
All this is to say that last week’s successful voyage on the Northern Sea Route is a sign of impending doom.