U.S. officials are also concerned about the long-term goals of the Kremlin’s ally in the war-torn state. An intelligence officer notes that the trench is a sign that Wagner, who according to the official has the largest global presence in Libya, is “settling in the long run.”
Stretching tens of kilometers south from the populated coastal areas around Sirte to the Wagner-controlled stronghold of al-Jufra, the gully can be seen on satellite imagery and is reinforced by a series of elaborate fortifications.
CNN has reached out to the Russian government for comment, but has received no response.
The trench and fortifications appear to be designed to prevent or stop a land attack on LNA-controlled areas in the east that pass through the populated coastal areas of Libya that have seen the most clashes since the fall of the Moammar Gadhafi regime. 2011.
The GNA has posted images of excavators and trucks creating the ditch and verge that run alongside it, and said work was only underway this month.
The trench, the US intelligence official said, is another reason “we see no intention or movement of Turkish or Russian forces to adhere to the UN-brokered agreement. This has the potential to allow an already fragile peace process. derailment and a ceasefire. face a very difficult year. “
Open-source monitoring says it has mapped a series of more than 30 defensive positions excavated in the desert and hills that stretch for approximately 70 kilometers.
Satellite images of Maxar appear to show both the trench stretching along a main road and the fortifications dug, including by Wagner mercenaries and their contractors.
Images show a build-up of defenses around Jufra airbase, and also Brak airfield further south, where apparent radar defenses have been installed and reinforced.
Salaheddin Al-Namroush GNA Defense Minister, told CNN, “I don’t think anyone digging a ditch today and making these reinforcements will leave anytime soon.”
Claudia Gazzini, of the International Crisis Group, told CNN that the trench was “indeed troubling,” and that talk about it “has been circulating among diplomats for the past few weeks. It is underway and would suggest that Moscow has its presence in Libya. ”
Analysts have said the Kremlin wants to strengthen its military presence and influence in the Mediterranean, along NATO’s southern underbelly, with the added bonus of involvement and profit from the Libyan oil industry.
Gazzini added that there were repeated reports that both sides continued to maintain and build a presence of foreign mercenaries, with the GNA also being accused of increasing its supplies of military equipment, under a public agreement with Turkey to support its armed forces.
The US intelligence official said the number of mercenaries on both the GNA and LNA sides was relatively constant: it is estimated that there were 10,000 in Libya currently, according to a September AFRICOM report on the matter.
The Libyan deployment of about 2,000 foreign Wagner mercenaries – believed to be mostly Russian or former Soviet Union subjects – is the world’s largest private military company, the U.S. official said.
A spokesman for the LNA, Major General Khaled al-Mahjoub, confirmed the existence of the trenches to CNN, but described them as “temporary” sand barriers and trenches, in “an open area … for defense and fighting”. He denied the presence of 2,000 Wagner mercenaries, saying there were advisers “announced long ago”.
But a confidential UN report in June obtained by CNN described the Wagner fighters as “an effective force multiplier.”
Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there were no Russians in Libya, but if there are, they don’t represent Russia. Russia has always denied using mercenaries to fight for it.
Despite an arms embargo, UN inspectors registered dozens of Russian flights to Libya in 2020.
The US Africa Command openly called out Russia for the expansion, saying it was similar to actions in Syria.
In June, the head of the defense committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament, Viktor Bondarev, said the US claim was “stupidity” and suggested that they were old Soviet planes from elsewhere in Africa.
A Western diplomat with knowledge of arms movements to Libya said Russian flights to the country had fallen from their peak of 93 in August to just over a dozen monthly by the end of 2020. “They’re just holding on to the ground,” he says. said, adding that Turkey flew in similar numbers.
The Turkish military is open about its desire for a permanent presence and is posting images of its army that the GNA has provided “Base Defense Training” over the past week.
“It is an all-encompassing effort,” said the US official. ‘They build facilities, bring in personnel and equipment. They have the HAWK air defense missile batteries, 3D [KALAKAN] radar.”
Satellite images of the port of al-Khoms show minor changes that suggest the port may be prepared for a long-term presence of the Turkish navy, which the GNAs al-Namroush has denied.
A senior Turkish security official told CNN that they “continue to provide military training, cooperation and advice … according to the needs and demands of the GNA.”
The thousands of Syrian mercenaries flown into Turkey and supported in Libya have also been used elsewhere, the US intelligence official revealed. During Turkey’s support of the Azerbaijani government during their recent conflict with Armenia, planes transported hundreds of Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan to assist Turkey’s ally in their war with Armenia, the US official said.
“It seemed there was a movement of some Syrian mercenaries towards the conflict [Nagorno Karabakh]. Smaller numbers, in the lower hundreds, ”the official added.
The Russian-backed Wagner forces are intended to give Moscow influence, but not accountability, analysts said. Jalel Harchaoui, a senior fellow at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, said Wagner mercenaries were “ disposable by definition ” – and a “ force that doesn’t exist, according to the Russian state’s official version. mean that it is not formidable, terrifying and reasonably effective, “but that it provides the greatest flexibility for the Kremlin.
Gazzini added, “Russian policy in Libya is opaque – what Russia wants to do. Evidence on the ground makes it sound like they want to consolidate their influence or find a way out.”
Still, the U.S. official added that the Russian build-up now amounted to significant personnel and sophisticated equipment, but one that raised ethical concerns. Fourth-generation jets and Pantsir missile systems are being piloted by less capable, poorly trained Wagner mercenaries, the official said.
“There are complex challenges in Libya, including Al Qaeda and ISIS, and mercenaries with their poor education, experience and lack of respect for human rights and international law make those weapons systems in their hands of most concern.”
While Wagner’s presence and trench seems to confer a benefit to LNA chief General Haftar, Russia’s presence appears more focused on Moscow’s agenda than Haftar’s support, analysts said.
The Western diplomat said Haftar needed an ongoing conflict in Libya to stay relevant. “He becomes irrelevant overnight once the conflict is over,” said the diplomat. “And if he doesn’t end on his terms, he becomes vulnerable to war crimes allegations and so on.”