Russia and China are trying to increase global influence

LONDON – International diplomacy is likely to determine who gets access to coronavirus vaccines in the coming months, analysts have told CNBC, with countries like Russia and China using some of the world’s most in-demand raw materials to advance their own interests abroad.

It is hoped that the introduction of Covid-19 vaccines can help put an end to the pandemic. While many countries have not yet embarked on vaccination programs, even high-income countries face a shortage of supplies as manufacturers struggle to ramp up production.

Russia and China had made distributing face masks and protective equipment to hard-hit countries a central premise of diplomatic relations last year. Now both countries see a transactional approach to vaccine delivery.

Agathe Demarais, director of global forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC over the phone that Russia, China, and to a lesser extent India are betting on providing Covid vaccines to emerging or low-income countries to advance their interests.

“Russia and China have been doing this for a long time … especially in emerging countries because they feel that traditional Western powers are withdrawing from these countries,” said Demarais.

“ In the past, although it is actually still the case, we saw China launch the Belt and Road Initiative, we saw Russia do a number of things, especially in the Middle East countries with nuclear power plants, and vaccine diplomacy is new. brick throughout their effort to strengthen their global position. “

Through this strategy, Russia and China are likely to bolster a long-term presence in countries around the world, Demarais said, noting that the fundamental importance of vaccines to the population will make it “super, super difficult” for countries to pursue diplomatic pressure in the future. to resist. .

The problem for Moscow and Beijing, however, is that “there is a high, high probability” that they both promise too much and deliver too little, she added.

The Russian Sputnik V vaccine and the Chinese Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines have already started global rollout. In total, 26 countries, including Argentina, Hungary, Tunisia and Turkmenistan, have approved the Russian Covid vaccine. The customer queue in China includes Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates.

Analysts say both Russia and China have typically negotiated supply deals that strengthen pre-existing political alliances, but manufacturing problems for vaccines manufactured in the West may provide enough incentive for some non-traditional allies to look to Moscow and Beijing.

Russia and China are currently unable to meet the demand for vaccines in their respective domestic markets, and still export to countries around the world. Manufacturing is the main hurdle to this challenge, while many high-income countries have pre-ordered more doses than they need.

A report published last month by the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that most of the adult population of advanced economies would be vaccinated by the middle of next year. In contrast, for many middle-income countries, this timeline runs until the beginning of 2023 and even until 2024 for some low-income countries.

It underscores the global mismatch between supply and demand and the wide gap between high and low income countries when it comes to access to vaccines.

Last month, the World Health Organization’s top official warned that the world was on the verge of a “catastrophic moral failure” as a result of unequal vaccination against Covid.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Jan. 18 that it was clear that even if they speak the language of fair access to vaccines, “ some countries and companies continue to prioritize bilateral deals, go around COVAX, drive prices up and try to jump forward. of the queue. “

“This is wrong,” he added.

Tedros condemned what he described as a “me-first approach” from high-income countries, saying it is self-destructive and endangers the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people. Almost all high-income countries have prioritized the distribution of vaccines to their own populations.

When asked if there was any prospect that countries would change their so-called me-first approach following the WHO’s warning about vaccination diplomacy, Demarais replied, “No. It’s not going to happen. I’m following it very closely and it’s all bad. depressing.”

COVAX is one of the three pillars of the so-called Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator, which was introduced by WHO, the European Commission and France last April. It focuses on equitable access to Covid diagnostics, treatments and vaccines to help less prosperous countries.

Analysts have long been skeptical about how efficiently COVAX can deliver supplies of Covid vaccines to middle and low-income countries around the world, despite calls from several heads of state for global solidarity at the start of the pandemic.

The international aid group Medecins Sans Frontieres has described what we see today in terms of global access to vaccines as “far from a picture of equality.”

“The big challenge, once you zoom out on a global level, is that every time a country makes a bilateral agreement, it becomes much more difficult to put vaccines through COVAX into the multilateral pot,” said Suerie Moon, co-director of Global Health. Center of the Graduate Institute Geneva, told CNBC by phone.

In addition to these concerns, Moon said, “We don’t currently have an international-level system, for example, to make sure you can match the vaccine’s efficacy with a variant that is circulating.”

She cited South Africa as a striking example. Earlier this month, South Africa halted the rollout of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine after a study raised questions about its effectiveness against a highly contagious variant first discovered in the country.

“In a rational and ethical world, South Africa would suddenly have access to vaccines that are effective against their variant and the AstraZeneca vaccines could be sent to another part of the world where that variant is not in circulation. That would be the rational one. way to do it, but we just don’t have arrangements for those kinds of transactions, ”Moon said.

“Ideally, that’s the kind of thing that happens when you have strong international cooperation, but I think in reality it’s going to be a mess,” she continued.

“ We will expire vaccines in some countries while they can be used elsewhere, we will have vaccines that are effective in one place, but they are not in the right place (and) we will have surplus vaccines as security. measure while in another country people have nothing. “