When it comes to trading Nolan Arenado, think Giancarlo Stanton.
The Rockies have reconnected with the Cardinals about sharing the star as a third baseman, as Ken Rosenthal first reported on The Athletic.
There are so many hurdles to closing these types of deals, compounded by the financial uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Among other things, this has led NL Central to find itself in an almost group talent dump in which players such as Josh Bell, Yu Darvish, Raisel Iglesias, Jon Lester, Joe Musgrove, Jose Quintana, Kyle Schwarber, Jameson Taillon and probably at some point Trevor Bauer quickly left. On Thursday, the Cardinals reached an agreement to keep Adam Wainwright on an $ 8 million pact for one year. Doesn’t sound like much. But at this point, it was four times more than the rest of the combined division spent on free agency before Joc Pederson reached a deal with the Cubs for a year and about $ 5 million on Friday.
So St. Louis can decide that if the rest of the division backs out, why take the long-term risk on Arenado? The division could be won without him.
But let’s pretend we’re in a time when, you know, teams really cared about improvement. In that scenario, there is a blueprint for this type of trade and the Cardinals and the Arenado agent are familiar with it.
Joel Wolfe is the agent for both Arenado and Stanton. After the 2017 season, the Cardinals had struck a deal with the Marlins for Stanton, who appealed to his no-trade clause. Stanton’s preference was for his hometown of Dodgers, but he was fine with the Yankees. Arenado would also like to go to his hometown of Dodgers, but he would be fine with the Cardinals.
Stanton signed a 13-year $ 325 million contract with the team that drafted him (Marlins) in the second round. Arenado signed an eight-year $ 260 million deal with the team that drafted him in the second round (Rockies). Both made a long-term commitment to the franchise, promising it would spend to win the now well-paid stars. But both were smart enough to know that this was not the history of the organization. So neither of you could be surprised if it didn’t. However, the players couldn’t refuse that kind of guaranteed money, despite the history of the franchise. So these deals had the feel of an NBA situation where the star takes the guaranteed money and then forces himself out of town when he gets frustrated with the organization (did you notice James Harden in Brooklyn, for example?).
Stanton had 10 years and $ 295 million left. The Marlins desperately wanted to release as much of his salary as possible. So they agreed to take over the remaining two years on Starlin Castro for $ 22 million, eat $ 30 million if Stanton did not invoke his opt-out after the 2020 campaign, and accept two potential lottery tickets far from the majors.
In total, the Yanks saved $ 52 million. The equivalent would be for the Cardinals to save about $ 35 million in the six years against $ 199 million left on Arenado. Obviously, that’s just a guideline. Stanton came out of an MVP season, but had less defensive value and 10 years to go. Arenado will play at 30 in 2021, but comes from his worst season and a shoulder injury. However, he remains one of the best defensive third basemen ever, finishing in the top eight for NL MVP from 2015 to 2019.
The Cardinals have plenty of Castro-style contracts to make compensation. Miles Mikolas (three years for $ 47.25 million), Matt Carpenter (one year, $ 20.5 million) and Dexter Fowler (one year, $ 14.5 million) all have trading provisions they should forgo. Carlos Martinez (one year, $ 12 million) and Andrew Miller (one year, $ 12 million) would not, but would receive an allocation bonus of $ 1 million. Any of these individually or in combination would yield a payout on Arenado.
The Rockies could theoretically do what the Red Sox just did by taking over most of Adam Ottavino’s contract to gain access to potential Frank German. Colorado can accept more contracts or eat more dollars to access better prospects. For example, the Cardinals can build a trade around one of the better third base prospects in the game, also coincidentally with the first name Nolan – Nolan Gorman.
Arenado may opt out after the 2021 season, but would likely push that back to ease a transaction. If so, the Rockies can agree to eat some of the deal – as with Stanton – if the opt-out isn’t triggered.