Despite claims of a “massive exodus” from California in the past year, a new study published Thursday by an impartial think tank found that the 2020 exit from the most populous US state largely reflected historical patterns.
California Policy Lab, which works with state governments to provide data on important issues, said in a press release the report’s findings announce that most of the movements of California residents in 2020 took place within the state.
The group found that the most significant change recorded was a drop in the number of people moving to California.
However, the city of San Francisco saw a record number of people leave during the coronavirus pandemic.
From March last year to the end of 2020, net trips from the Northern California city were up 649 percent compared to the same period in 2019, from 5,200 departures to 38,800, the Policy Lab reported.
“While a mass exodus from California clearly did not happen in 2020, the pandemic did change some historical patterns. For example, fewer people moved to the state to replace those who left,” said Natalie Holmes, a research fellow at the Policy Lab. and a graduate student of the University of California-Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy.
Holmes added, “At the county level, however, San Francisco is experiencing a unique and dramatic exodus, causing a 50% or 100% increase in migration from the Bay Area for some counties in the Sierras.”
Since 2015, the share of movers who actually leave the state has risen from 16 percent to 18 percent.
Evan White, executive director of UC Berkeley’s Policy Lab, said that while the state has yet to see evidence that wealthy residents are leaving the state in large numbers, the departure of higher-income groups could negatively impact the economy. of the state in the future.
“Unfortunately, because the state relies heavily on income taxes from the über-rich, the departure of even a small number of wealthy people could negatively impact earnings if they are not replaced by newcomers,” White said in a statement.
The study was based on data from the Consumer credit panel from the University of California, which contains information on adults with a credit history who have lived in California since 2004.
The dataset includes a person’s zip code and credit information, which are updated quarterly, according to Friday’s press release.
The Policy Lab defines a move as a change in zip code from one quarter to another, which means that data delays can occur if an address change is not reported immediately.