The COVID-19 variant identified in England last month could pose a higher risk of death, although data is limited, one of the government’s scientific advisory groups said ITV political editor Robert Peston said on Twitter on Friday.
Early evidence suggests that the variant of the coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.
“In addition to spreading more quickly, it now also shows some evidence that the new variant – the one first identified in London and the Southeast – may be associated with higher mortality,” Johnson said.
“It is largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under such intense pressure.”
While the new variant is more contagious, Britain’s top health and science officials have said so far that there was no evidence that it was more deadly or caused more serious illness.
However, Peston said the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) had now concluded that it “may be a little more deadly than the existing strain.”
He quoted a statement by Neil Ferguson, a professor at Imperial College and a member of Nervtag, who said, “It is a realistic possibility that the new British variant will increase the risk of death, but there is still considerable uncertainty.”
No one was immediately available for comment from the UK Health Department relating to Nervtag.
The statement cited by Peston outlined a 1.3-fold increased risk of death with the variant, but also emphasized that only a few types of tests could indicate which variant of the virus a patient had contracted.
“The big caveat is that for about 8% of deaths, we only know what kind of people are infected,” quoted Peston Ferguson, who also outlined further limitations on the available data.
Sir Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government, told the BBC that the evidence of lethality “is not strong yet”.
He said: “I want to emphasize that there is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise grip on them, but it is clearly a concern that this is both an increase in mortality and an increase in transferability entails. “
The new variant appears to be about 30% more deadly.
For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected with the old variant, 10 would be expected to die. But this increases to around 13 with the new variant.
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