Raúl Castro retires at the age of 89, leaving supreme power on the island in April at the Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), the first after the death of his brother Fidel in 2016.
In April, the surname Castro leaves the political life of Cuba. In mid-month, when the Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) is held, Raúl Castro, brother of Fidel Castro, retires and the party is left to a new generation.
The Castro brothers have held the reins in Cuba since 1959, which is now opening up to a new era with different men in power.
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The new team has “pending the task of building its legitimacy, which can only come from its own political project, which will bring economic prosperity with social justice to Cuba,” said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue Analysis Center. , to AFP in Washington.
These men and women, led by current president Miguel Díaz-Canel, 60, are expected to arrive at the PCC’s next congress (only one) – between April 16-19 – to the maximum leadership of the party, center of the power on the island.
Cuba will remain socialist, but for specialists, constitutional legality will limit the superiority of ideology and allow for political opening.
Political Reforms
In April 2019, a new constitution was adopted defending the “irreversible” nature of socialism in the country. She is “the daughter of her time and reflects the diversity of society,” said Raúl Castro at the time, who will now leave the leadership of the PCC following the handover of the presidency to Díaz-Canel in 2018.
Unlike its predecessor, which was unanimously approved in 1976, the new constitution received the approval of 78.3% of the popular vote and 22% of the rejection or abstention, a high level in the Cuban context.
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However, in recent months, artists, intellectuals and other sectors of civil society have begun to claim rights and freedoms in the country.
Given these claims, the new team is expected to promote a political reform of the state “ to effectively manage the tensions that manifest in society, ” Shifter says, given that the constitution is at least theoretically the deconcentration of the state. the power of the president allows. .
On November 27, an unprecedented peaceful protest by 300 artists was registered before the Ministry of Culture, demanding freedom of expression.
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While an animal welfare decree was passed a few weeks ago, this is considered the first victory of an unofficial civil society.
The rapid spread of the Internet in the last three years on the island has left many Cubans dissatisfied.
The PCC, for its part, has already announced that it will face “political-ideological subversion” in social networks.
For Shifter, this new ruling generation faces the great challenge of responding with a different political project from that of the generation of historical leaders, which grants society large quotas of liberty.
The tradition of the revolution’s leaders was to mobilize their hosts for active ideological support, but that is changing.
“Today the mobilization is selective. Not so much with an ideological logic, but with a political logic that meets the government and demands neutrality rather than militancy, ”said Cuban academic Arturo López-Levy of Holy Names University in Oakland, California.
Pragmatic relationship with the US.
Another important factor is the relationship the new political team maintains with the United States, which for some experts largely determines what happens on the island.
The new president of the United States, Joe Biden, had argued in his campaign that he could lift the sanctions of his predecessor, Donald Trump, and resume the policy of approaching the island, with a compassionate demand for respect for human rights. . However, Cuba has not been a priority so far.
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“Because of the dynamics that exist between Cuba and the United States, the United States directly and indirectly determines much of what happens. [en Cuba], of decision-making, even of Cuban leaders, ”said political analyst Harold Cárdenas.
The new Cuban political project should also build a pragmatic relationship with the United States, and one thing that could change is the strong military presence in the government, the PCC and the economy.
Much of the 280 sanctions the Trump administration has imposed on Cuba have targeted companies run by the military. Under a new policy, they could pass into civilian hands so as not to be the target of sanctions.
Even if they are civil or military, the state owns these businesses.
In the event that this does not happen and the hostility of the US continues, internally “Cuba will undergo a lengthy renegotiation of civil-military relations,” said López-Levy.
Then “the military will have the perfect justification for continuing to play its prominent role in political and socio-economic terms,” he concluded.