President Idriss Deby’s death on the front line gives Chad an unpredictable future

The exact circumstances of his death are still unclear, but Deby appears to have been shot on April 17 when his forces fought against a rebel group in the desert north of the capital, N’djamena.

A military statement said he “took charge of operations in the heroic fight against the terrorists from Libya. He was wounded in the fighting and died while repatriated to N’Djamena.”

The rebels say Deby flew back to the capital. A senior intelligence source told CNN that Deby was injured after plans to negotiate with northern rebel leaders quickly collapsed in fierce fighting that killed “four of his generals on the spot.”

The intelligence source, which specializes in Libya, referred to a source in the rebel faction who had been briefed on the incident.

CNN cannot confirm that claim, but both sides reported heavy clashes that day around the city of Mao in the Kanem region – about 300 kilometers north of the capital.

The rebels – the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) – had entered Chad from southern Libya last week and had already occupied much of the Tibesti region. They had stated that they intended to march to the capital.

Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno (C) will vote in a polling station in N'djamena on April 11, 2021.

Perhaps it was no surprise that Deby was on the front lines of the battle. Before taking power, he received military training in France and was the chief military adviser to his predecessor, Hissene Habre, whom he overthrew in 1990.

Last year, he went to the front line around Lake Chad while the army fought the Boko Haram terror group. Deby was primarily a soldier.

In 2006, when Chad was overrun with refugees fleeing the Darfur conflict in Sudan, Deby told CNN’s Nic Robertson, “I am the only president who says we must go to war to bring peace. It was done in Bosnia. Why not Darfur. “If need be, let’s bring peace through violence.”

Traveling north over the weekend, Deby had just won a sixth term in an election boycotted by much of the opposition to extend his 30-year hold on power.

Accounts of N’djamena since his death was announced Tuesday describe the atmosphere as gloomy and anxious, with many stores closed.

Most Chadians have known no other leader. Before this year’s election, Deby said, “I know in advance that I will win, as I have for the past 30 years.”

A study of his rule by the United States Peace Institute concluded that Deby’s contribution to the history of his country is “ resisting both negotiated and violent regime changes, building military strength and imposing political continuity, but that has it was done at the expense of hopes for a democratic and inclusive society. ”

The fight against jihad

Deby’s death robs France – the former colonial power – of one of its most trusted allies in Africa, and a cornerstone in the fight against the spread of Islamist terror groups in the Sahel.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s office paid tribute to him on Tuesday, saying France had lost a “ brave friend. ” According to the French government, Macron will also attend Deby’s funeral on Friday.

But his death also heralds uncertain times for the country itself.

The French military has about 5,000 troops fighting Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and other terrorist groups in the Sahel region in what is called Operation Barkhane.

Chad has been its main ally in the protracted conflict in Mali and has been at the forefront of the Boko Haram conflict over Lake Chad, which borders northern Nigeria.

The President of Nigeria, Muhammad Buhari, tweeted Wednesday that “the late president took a very active role in our regional joint cooperation in the military campaign against Boko Haram terrorists.”

Chad borders six countries, including the Central African Republic, Niger and Sudan.

It is an unstable neighborhood and there are frequent raids from outside Chad’s borders. Some analysts believe that the Chadian military is overloaded with both its regional role and coping with frequent uprisings at home.

Chad's president, Idriss Deby, murdered in head-on clashes with rebels, state television reports

The transitional military council that will now lead the country is headed by Deby’s son, Mahammat Kaka, who is already a general at the age of 37.

He has been in the military since his teens and has seen service in northern Chad, according to a biography published by the council. On Wednesday, the younger Deby signed a statement in which he named the fifteen members of the council – all military figures,

According to a charter published Wednesday, the Transitional Council will run Chad for 18 months – but that can be extended.

The charter replaces Chad’s constitution, according to which the president of the National Assembly should have become interim president. The younger Deby has promised “free, democratic and transparent elections”.

France has taken swift steps to support the transition, saying in a statement on Tuesday that it “expresses its strong commitment to the stability and territorial integrity of Chad”.

According to the State Department spokesman’s Twitter account, the United States took a different approach, saying it supported “a peaceful transfer of power in accordance with the Chadian constitution.”

A mountain of challenges

Some Chadians say the appointment of the younger Deby among them is unconstitutional Mahamat Saleh Annadif, a former Chadian diplomat who also heads the United Nations Office for West Africa and opposition political parties.

Whether the younger Déby has the political skills to run Chad’s many rival constituencies – ethnic and military – is open to question.

His father faced several uprisings during his three decades in power, often with the help of France.

Chadians feel

Rebel armies reached the capital on at least two occasions. French planes were involved in attacking another rebel group – led by Deby’s own cousin – entering Chad from Libya in February 2019, France’s first intervention since 2008.

Some commentators believe that French military support for Déby became almost unconditional.

Chad observer Marielle Debos wrote in 2019 that French attacks on Chadian rebels were “a sign that France is now supporting Deby at all costs, while ignoring the regime’s authoritarian practices and human rights violations”.

The younger Déby faces a mountain of challenges. Four years ago, the United States Institute for Peace warned that whoever succeeded his father, “democratically or otherwise, will have to ensure not only the loyalty of the security forces as a priority, but also their ability to intervene in difficult theaters.”

Add to that an economy hit by low oil prices, and rebel movements revived by the death of his father.

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