The decision of an International Criminal Court panel to pave the way for an investigation into possible war crimes against Israel forces the Biden administration to wade into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict much earlier than expected.
Why it matters: The ICC ruling infuriated the Israeli government – and it also underscored their reliance on the Biden government, senior Israeli officials say. After the decision was announced Friday, Israel immediately opened urgent consultations with US officials.
- On Monday morning, the US Chargé d’Affaires met Israeli Secretary of State Gabi Ashkenazi in Jerusalem to discuss the matter.
- Hours later, Secretary of State Tony Blinken spoke to Ashkenazi and assured him that the US would help Israel oppose the ICC’s ruling, Israeli officials say.
The big picture: Unlike the Obama and Trump administrations, the Biden administration does not see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a foreign policy priority and expects little progress.
- On CNN on Monday, Blinken summed up President Biden’s initial approach to the issue as “doing no harm” – to ensure that neither side takes unilateral steps that would further hinder the path to peace.
- Biden does not think there is a realistic chance of resuming negotiations between the parties in the near term and therefore does not intend to appoint a special envoy for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
But just three weeks after Biden’s term, Israeli officials warn of a deep crisis in Israeli-Palestinian relations if the ICC prosecutor takes up the war crimes investigation initially requested by the Palestinian government.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now urgently needs Biden’s support on an issue of acute concern to Israel.
- The State Department has already contested the ICC’s decision that it has jurisdiction to investigate the matter.
- The Israeli government is now hoping that the Biden government will pressure the court member states and the prosecution not to continue the investigation.
What to watch: That reliance could leverage the US when trying to dissuade the Israeli government from taking provocative steps, such as the construction of new settlements, or it could gain Israeli approval for the reopening of the US consulate in Jerusalem.
- But the ICC ruling could also complicate the Biden administration’s efforts to renew ties with the Palestinians – in particular, the plan to reopen the PLO Washington office, which the Trump administration closed in 2018.
- An existing US law requires the Secretary of State to declare to Congress that the Palestinian Authority is not taking any action against Israel in the ICC, so that the PLO can have an office in Washington.
The state of affairs: Palestinian leaders have welcomed the ICC’s ruling and have called for an investigation as soon as possible. It is unclear whether the Biden government has held discussions with Palestinian officials about this.