A major new survey of Trump voters in 2020 reveals how divided they were on Social Security, Medicare, trade and tax cuts for the wealthy – while culture, religion and patriotism and the US-Mexico border were united issues.
Driving the news: The YouGov 1,000 voter poll, conducted and reviewed by Axios last month, informs a Friday forum on the future of the GOP hosted by the American Enterprise Institute and Ethics and Public Policy Center. It reflects the thinking of this powerful part of the grassroots not only after the election but also after January. 6.
- “The post-Trump challenge for Republicans is how to build on the conservative populist alliance, and not override the populist part, ”said EPPC senior fellow Henry Olsen, who led the study.
In numbers: Asked to respond to a statement once considered Republican Party orthodoxy – “Lowering the tax rate paid by the richest Americans helps boost economic growth for all of us” – 46% said they did it there. disagreed.
- A third disputed whether lowering taxes on large companies will promote economic growth for all.
- 60% said foreign trade helps the US economy, while 40% said it hurts.
- 40% said foreign trade creates more jobs for Americans, while 60% said it reduces the number of jobs for Americans.
- 55% said controlling the cost of Medicare to taxpayers is more important, but 45% said it is more important to make sure seniors get the health care they need, regardless of the cost.
- 63% said it is more important to keep Social Security benefits at current levels, even if it means increasing payroll taxes, but 37% were in favor of low payroll taxes, even if it means lowering benefits for future retirees .
But, but, but: Nearly nine in ten supported the construction of a U.S.-Mexico border wall, supported U.S. employers in certifying workers’ citizenship, were concerned about increasing anti-white discrimination, and said the Christian faith is essential to American greatness , but is under attack.
Between the lines: There is a real division within the Trump coalition about the future of the GOP.
- 66% said they are more in favor of former President Trump than the Republican Party.
- 37% said the party is on the wrong path.
- 40% said Republicans care more about helping people make more money than helping people live a decent life.
- 54% said they would definitely support Trump in 2024 if he flee again.
What they say: “The Trump coalition is fundamentally different” from pre-Trump Republicans and Republican voters, Olsen told Axios.
- “Once we get down from economics, to patriotism, culture, the religious issues, it’s really a clear super majority, and that’s what unites the coalition … . “
- “But economics certainly divides the Trump coalition. … All the things that shaped economic thinking before Trump are now a complete split.” Switching back to conservative economic ideas could be “like opening a door for Democrats to run through.”
- The challenge for Republicans is “they need to strengthen the Trump coalition beyond Trump’s personality.”
Methodology: This survey of 1,000 Trump 2020 voters was conducted January 11-14, 2021, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%
- YouGov interviewed 1,069 Trump voters matched to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final data set based on Trump voter characteristics from the 2020 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The matched data was weighted by age, gender, race, and education using propensity score weighting.