It will be another seven years before the global COVID-19 pandemic is over, if vaccine distribution continues at its current pace, a Bloomberg calculation shows.
The media outlet, which said it had built the ‘largest database’ of COVID-19 inoculations around the world, processed the numbers and found that it could take the better part of a decade to achieve herd immunity if distribution does not increase for two doses of vaccines.
Dr. Anthony Fauci has said 70-85 percent of the population will need the vaccine to achieve herd immunity and while the US is on track to reach that goal by the New Year in 2022, it could land like Canada ten years their current pace.
More than 119 million doses have been distributed worldwide, but Bloomberg’s tracker shows that some countries, mostly wealthy, Western countries, are reaching 75% coverage much faster than others.
For example, Israel is on track to see 75% coverage in the spring, but it could take Portugal four years, China seven years, and Latvia nearly nine years to achieve herd immunity if vaccine distributions don’t change.
The calculations are, of course, “volatile,” Bloomberg explained, especially with the rollout being only a few months old and still marred by supply disruptions.
Canada’s vaccination coverage has recently halved after the country faced shipping delays, but as long as their contracts to buy more doses per person than any other country advance, they won’t be trapped in a pandemic hell for a decade.
The outlet noted that the pace is expected to accelerate globally as more and more injections become available – they pointed to major vaccine manufacturing hubs in India and Mexico and said production has just started and only a third of countries have started vaccination campaigns.
Bloomberg’s calculator is based on two doses for complete vaccination and will be updated as soon as the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which requires only one dose, is available. Although the vaccinations are not approved for children, Bloomberg has included children in their calculation because they, too, can be infected and transmit the virus.
The calculator does not account for any level of natural immunity experienced by those who have previously had the virus – the CDC has said some immunity is provided after infection, but it is not clear how long it lasts.
A Mount Sinai study published last week in preprint server MedRxiv found that reinfection “often” occurs in young people, especially those who had very mild cases or no symptoms at all when they had the bug. The researchers involved urged governments to include young, previously infected people in the distribution of vaccines.
Another study published this week suggested that those who have had the virus may only need one dose of the vaccine.