While the most anticipated match-up of Sunday night’s showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans may center around Mike Pettine’s defense against All-Pro returning to Derrick Henry, another pivotal chess match looms in the shadows, and it’s one where the Packers should enjoy a huge advantage.
Two major situations where the Packers are in violation could play as much a part in determining Sunday night’s winner as Henry against Green Bay’s run defense.
The importance of the matchup is shocking because of the Packers’ potential for supremacy.
Titans’ attack was great in both third place and the red zone, ranking in the top 10 in each category, but it’s a whole different story for Mike Vrabel’s defense. In fact, there may not be a worse situational defense in football this season.
The Titans defense ranks last in the third-down conversion rate (52.6) and 30th in the red zone touchdown rate (70.9), a potentially disastrous combination of situational incompetence when faced with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Matt LaFleur’s team has arguably the best situational attack in football. The Packers are third in the NFL on third downs (49.1) and first in the red zone (78.4).
Despite some struggles against the Carolina Panthers last Saturday night, the Packers were dominant and consistently in third place.
Rodgers leads the NFL in passing by yards in third place, and he is second in passing touchdowns and yards per attempt and third in passer rating. Receiver Davante Adams is first in receiving yards and second in first down catches on third down. Receivers Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and tight end Robert Tonyan have turned 31 third-place catches into 29 first-downs. Rodgers even scrambled for eight first downs on the third down.
The Titans have made three times as many touchdown passes on the third down (nine) as they have pockets on the third down (three). Five different quarterbacks put a passer rating of 100.0 in third place against the Titans, and they were terrible at defending the third and the short. Of the 92 completions against the Titans in third place, 74 have won first downs. And running the ball in third place has been converted 28 times out of 42 tries.
The red zone – or gold zone, as the Packers call it – has been a magical place for the green and gold. The Packers are approaching an 80 percent landing percentage when they get within the 20-yard line, thanks in large part to Rodgers. He leads the NFL with 29 touchdown passes in the red zone and has three other scores. In total, the two-time MVP accounted for 32 of the Packers’ 40 red zone touchdowns.
The Titans have allowed 39 red-zone touchdowns on defense, highlighting the group’s corner but also break style.
It’s probably not hard to say third and the red zone will decide the game on Sunday night. Or at least go a long way in determining a winner. Both fouls are dominant in situational football, but only one defense is in the running for the worst in the NFL in third place and in the red zone.
Henry may be productive to the Titans, but the Packers can do a lot more damage than Rodgers and take advantage of the confrontation’s biggest mismatch.