The latest model data from the Ontario government suggests that progress in reducing coronavirus cases has stalled and that delayed medical procedures will have a serious impact on the healthcare system.
“Declines in community affairs and test positivity have leveled off. Cases are increasing in most public health departments as we see increased mobility, ”said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, the co-chair of Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, to reporters Thursday afternoon.
“The variants of concern continue to spread across Ontario, and our ability to control the rate of spread will determine whether we return to normal or whether we face a third wave of infection.”
Officials reiterated that the coming weeks will be “critical” in determining what restrictions will be in place before the summer, noting that masking and distance restrictions will be needed to control the spread of more contagious variants of COVID-19.
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“We know exactly what to do,” he said.
“While it is difficult, and I know everyone is at their limits, a little more discipline with masking and distance will help reduce matters.”
According to the projections, COVID-19 rates could rise to 8,000 new cases per day in the worst-case scenario over the next two to three weeks, depending on the spread of variants.
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If public health measures are followed and restrictions are put in place to contain sudden spikes, the projections indicated that the rate could be limited to just under 2,000 cases per day.
“There is a lot of uncertainty now and with it a lot of risk and a lot of danger,” said Brown.
If the number of cases were allowed to rise again, he warned that there remains a danger of overwhelming Ontario’s hospital system.
Even in an optimistic scenario, seeing a “small” capacity increase, Brown said the county could still see 400 patients occupying intensive care beds each week.
“It is important to note that this is not (just) a small increase,” he said.
“This is an increase on top of an already tense system that is challenging access to care.”
The COVID-19 Scientific Advice Table raised the alarm about delayed care and missed screening for other chronic diseases.
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“The need for care will increase strongly across the sector and for a long period of time. In fact, our actions now will determine whether we can access care later, ”said Brown.
For example, the presentation emphasized that a previous “substantial” decline in cancer screening tests will result in “long-term implications for cancer outcomes.”
Looking at the county’s surgical backlog, the Table reported that there were zero surgical cases as of March 15, 2020. The total rose to about 75,000 cases in May, when the surgical restart program began. In February, there were 227,410 cumulative surgical backlogs.
However, there was encouraging news in the county’s data.
Brown said COVID-19 vaccinations in long-term care settings continue to pay off as the number of residents and human resources declines. He also said the death toll has leveled off with the death of one resident in nearly a week.
– With files from The Canadian Press
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