Now you see, was that so hard?
Three days ago, he warned that he would not advise vaccinated people to eat out or go to the movies, not because it is dangerous for them, but because it is potentially dangerous for the majority of the population who have not yet been immunized and with whom they would mingle in those public spaces. Vaccinated people * can * still spread the virus, even if they spread it less than an unvaccinated person.
But sure, in the name of people who have done their duty of giving the jab a reprieve from the misery of pandemic isolation, we can encourage those who have been immunized to get together with others who have been immunized. Well, yes, be careful with strangers, as they may still be prone to infection, but if you are sure that all participants in an upcoming social engagement have been vaccinated, why wouldn’t that engagement continue?
Last night, Fauci voted in an interview with CNN. Why shouldn’t it? “Although it is not supported by data,” he said of vaccinated people who socialize safely, “it is supported by common sense.” That’s true, and also (finally!) The right message to give Americans who are on the fence about getting their photos a behavioral incentive to take the plunge. Do you want to have a dinner with eight to ten good friends in the short term? No problem. You all know what to do.
Go to 5:30 of the clip here and watch:
Dr. Anthony Fauci urges all Americans to get vaccinated as soon as it is their turn, promising that there will be “both social and personal benefit, and from a public health point of view.” https://t.co/4hzSawki9u pic.twitter.com/FAmROWkwPm
– CNN (@CNN) February 26, 2021
The key bit via the Daily Wire:
“I have been vaccinated, my wife has been vaccinated, my daughters have been vaccinated,” he continued. “Before they were vaccinated, if they wanted to visit you, they had to quarantine for a while, get tested and wear a mask. What we are saying now, even though it is not backed by data, it is backed by common sense that if you have two vaccinated people, and they want to get together, be they family members or friends you know, that have been vaccinated, you can as individuals begin to get it, even though the risk is not zero. The risk becomes extremely low if you get both parties vaccinated. So we’re going to see people say, ‘Hey, the more people get vaccinated, I can have dinner with my relative who comes in.’ ”
That sounds suspicious as Fauci says, “Whatever the CDC formally recommends, we know vaccinated people will get together and we know it’s safe.” So there is your unofficial guidance. For once, the experts don’t undercut the vaccine.
Coincidentally, he said this within about 12 hours after Cambridge University released new data showing that even one dose of the Pfizers vaccine significantly reduces the risk of transmission. We already had evidence from Israel that a single dose drastically reduces the risk of symptomatic disease, but the Cambridge data suggests it also reduces the risk of even asymptomatic infection:
Cambridge Addenbrooke Hospital findings indicated 75 percent protection against Covid-19.
The results also indicate a quadrupling of the risk of asymptomatic Covid infection in health workers vaccinated for more than 12 days – suggesting that the first dose will significantly reduce the spread of the virus.
Dr. Mike Weekes, an infectious disease specialist in Cambridge University’s medicine department who co-led the study, called the findings “great news.”
He said, “The Pfizer vaccine not only protects against illness from SARS-CoV-2, but also helps prevent infection, reducing the chance of passing the virus to others
That’s what Fauci means by common sense by letting vaccinated people interact with each other. If each of them is largely protected not only from disease, but also from infection, the mental well-being benefits of allowing them to resume some degree of normalcy clearly outweigh the risk of transmission that might be due to the encounter .
It’s worth watching the full interview if you have the time as he’s keen to hammer out the point that people shouldn’t have to wait for the Cadillac vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) if the only one available locally is a Lincoln (Johnson & Johnson). Pfizer and Moderna appear to be slightly more effective than J&J, but in the end nothing is more effective at preventing infections than herd immunity. The sooner we get there, the more lives are saved, which means getting * a little * vaccine to as many people as possible as soon as possible is the optimal strategy for limiting each individual’s risk, even if not all of those vaccines are equally powerful. A public health researcher built a computer model to test that theory, and came out confident:
Take an example: Suppose the United States was able to get a million people a day fully vaccinated, with a vaccine with 90 percent efficacy (about what has happened so far) and that continued until 60 percent of the population was fully vaccinated. At this rate, it would take about six and a half months.
For comparison, consider a scenario where people are fully vaccinated at a higher rate of 1.5 million per day with a vaccine with a lower efficacy of about 70 percent until 60 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. At this faster rate, this would take about four months.
We found that this faster scenario with the lower efficacy vaccine could ultimately prevent an average of more than 1.38 million more cases, more than 51,000 hospitalizations and more than 6,000 more deaths than the slower vaccination and higher efficacy scenario. This underscores the importance of vaccinating as much of the population as possible as soon as possible to slow the spread of the virus.
Anyone looking for a Cadillac because they think a Lincoln isn’t quite in the same class is putting themselves and those around them unnecessarily at risk. The best protection we all have, including against scary variants that have yet to be developed, is to exclude all transmission vectors as soon as possible and deny the virus additional opportunities to mutate. Every new vaccine that comes onto the market makes that easier. Coincidentally, the FDA’s external expert advisory panel is meeting this afternoon to hopefully give J&J a final thumbs-up before the agency’s approval is approved this weekend.
By the way, pay attention to what Fauci once says about Johnson & Johnson’s one-time dose. That * can * eventually become a double dose, especially if a new variety starts, because one of the strategies for dealing with a dangerous new species is to simply “bombard” it with antibodies. Stay tuned.