It’s time to add Ohio State to the conversation for a 1 seed Come Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes entered Iowa on Thursday, hitting 14 3-pointers and taking off with an 89-85 win over the Hawkeyes.
They now have a resume that rivals that of anyone in the country outside of the clear two best teams: Gonzaga and Baylor.
The 1 seeds in most of the projected parentheses over the last few weeks feature a rotating cast of characters in addition to the Zags and Bears. Villanova has been a staple, but the Wildcats just lost convincingly to St. John’s. Houston had played itself in the mix, but the Cougars suffered a shocking loss in East Carolina on Wednesday night. Michigan hasn’t played in two weeks, and it’s unclear how the Wolverines will look after their COVID-19 hiatus – or when they’ll play again. Texas and Iowa have also had several weeks on the top line, but the Longhorns and Hawkeyes have both lost three of their past four.
After Thursday’s win in Iowa City, Chris Holtmann’s Buckeyes certainly have a path to a 1 seed, and you can say they set their own destiny for it.
Ohio State now has the most wins in Quadrant 1 of the country with seven, including road wins against Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin. There’s a swing from Rutgers and a December win at UCLA in Cleveland. The sheer amount of quality wins compares favorably with the other candidates: Villanova has two Q1 wins, while Iowa, Houston, Texas and Michigan have three each. The closest teams to Ohio State (besides Baylor and Gonzaga) in the Q1 win category are Illinois and Alabama, with five each.
According to research from ESPN Stats & Information, the Buckeyes’ five wins against teams in the AP Top 25 are the most in Division I this season, as are their four wins over the AP Top 25 teams.
When they came in Thursday, the state of Ohio was No. 12 in the net, No. 12 in the BPI, and No. 10 in KenPom. The Buckeyes were No. 7 in ESPN’s record strength, which measures a team’s resume. And they will rise in each of those statistics after they beat Iowa.
Ohio State has one of the best offenses in college basketball, with matchup problems EJ Liddell and Justice Sueing consistently causing problems for the defense with their versatility. Duane Washington broke out of his slump on Thursday and Justin Ahrens has proven to be a real boost for the Buckeyes in Big Ten game with his loots. Kyle Young is a front glue maker who crashes the offensive glass, and Zed Key is an old-fashioned back-to-the-basket post player who is effective against opponents with legit post players. CJ Walker’s return from injury has cemented the point guard spot; he had nine assists and only one turnover against Iowa on Thursday. In other words, the Buckeyes also tick the “eye test” box.
There is still a long way to go until Selection Sunday – but that also means that Ohio State still has plenty of opportunities to further strengthen its profile. The Buckeyes, among others, still have to compete against Michigan, while second games against Iowa and Illinois remain on the schedule. But all three of those teams have to come to Columbus, where Ohio State lost only one game this season and only two last season.
We don’t expect the Buckeyes to run the table to earn a 1 seed, but they probably don’t have to; Given the unpredictability of college basketball this season, anyone except Gonzaga and Baylor (and maybe Drake) is unlikely to go unbeaten the rest of the way.
Ohio State hasn’t received enough national attention this season, but Thursday’s win will make it hard to ignore the Buckeyes as a legitimate one-seed threat.