Preliminary data indicates that New Ideas will rule Congress. However, it is not yet possible to determine how many seats each side has won.
According to the latest data revealed by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the New Ideas party would take majority control of the Legislative Assembly until the conclusion of this note, with more than 320,000 votes nationwide.
However, these figures still do not reflect how many legislative seats the New Ideas party would have won across the country, or how many seats it will be able to get in its coalitions with GANA, how many deputies the latter party will have, also related to the ruling party. party, or if Democratic Change another close to Bukele will manage to sneak a lawmaker.
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The results also do not allow us to know how the opponents in ARENA, FMLN, PCN, PDC, Nuestro Tiempo and Vamos will face the delegates associated with Nayib Bukele’s government.
However, Nayib Bukele can be expected to rule the last three years of his reign with a friendly meeting.
Slow process of knowing results
The results of the February 28 elections came in by dropper. This, after several hours where the computer system was saturated because four million people per second consulted the website of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), as reported by the magistrate of this body, Noel Orellana, who warned that for this reason It was not possible to observe the data processed by the Voice Receiving Boards (JRV).
When publishing the Court’s website, a main graph was observed which contained the overall data of the votes per party at national level.
This showed a broad preference for the New Ideas party. However, this only reflected the number of votes, not the seats, as their allocation is done in a more complex way through the system of quotients and residuals.
However, the benefit was clear. The TSE chart showed that Nuevas Ideas collected more than 320,000 votes nationally with 2,216 records processed out of a total of 8,451 nationally (i.e. 26.22%). They were followed by the NI-Gana, ARENA, FMLN, GANA, PCN, PDC, Nuestro Tiempo, Vamos and CD coalition.
While in San Salvador, a department where 24 legislative seats are in dispute, 76 minutes were processed out of a total of 2,206 (ie 3.45%), Nuevas Ideas led the way with 10,446 votes; followed by the ARENA coalition with 1,740 votes; the FMLN with 904.79 votes; WINS with 620 votes; Our time with 507; We go with 303 votes; PCN with 270 votes; PDC with 197 votes, CD with 108 votes and impartial substitute Leonardo Bonilla with 42 votes. However, these results are too low to predict how many of the most populous department’s 24 lawmakers will go to each warring party.
In La Libertad, where 10 seats are in dispute, only 9% of the minutes had been processed, out of a total of 988 at the close of this note. The TSE website reported 89 polls, yielding a favorable result for New Ideas with 14,378 votes. ARENA came in second with 4,157 votes; WINS with 1,343 votes and Nuestro Tiempo was in third place with 1,054 votes.
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In San Miguel, out of a total of 668 records, 59 had been processed this Monday at 1 a.m., which corresponds to 8.83% of the total number of records.
According to this result, New Ideas obtained 6,388 votes; followed by the FMLN with 1,444 votes; the PDC with 1,171 votes; then ARENA with 855 votes; followed by WINS with 820 votes, being the parties with the highest number of votes.
The electoral environment at the Damián Villacorta school in Santa Tecla. Photo / René Quintanilla
In San Miguel, the FMLN was able to position itself in second place, unlike other departments, but it must be taken into account that the number of votes does not represent the number of seats each party will win.
These figures only serve to give an idea of the political landscape of El Salvador at the moment. Only at the end of each department’s check will it be known how many seats each party will receive and later on it will be known who the alternates who will fill each department are when the preferences are counted.
Legislative Assembly, Bukele’s pending link
On February 3, 2019, Nayib Bukele won the presidency of the Republic with about 53% of the votes in the first round.
This gave him broad legitimacy and his popularity grew, but because of the kind of electoral calendar in El Salvador, he still had no representatives of his own movement.
Therefore, 2021 was the fundamental date for the ruling party, as this outcome will depend on how easily Nayib Bukele will be able to rule the three years remaining as head of the executive branch.
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It is clear that his party, New Ideas, will have more delegates than any other party and that, along with GANA and CD, it will add as many. However, the composition of the new legislature is not yet known.
That will also depend on whether the president can smoothly promote his agenda to the delegates under his control or whether he will have to submit to negotiations with other parties to get the missing votes for various initiatives in Congress.
Within the legislature there are three types of majorities, each with its own powers (see attached figures). The simple majority allows for governance in most areas and is reached by 43 of the 84 alternates. The assessed, with 56, opens the door to second-degree appointments and debts, among other things. And the super-qualified opens the door to restrict the most protected constitutional rights and ratify territorial limit treaties. The final results will reveal what the ruling party will be able to achieve and what will be the key the opposition will have.